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Long Black: Surviving the coffee crisis

Author

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  • Gabriele, Alberto
  • Vanzetti, David

Abstract

Numerous solutions to the global coffee crisis have been suggested, including some form of supply constraint. UNCTAD’s Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM) is used to assess the likely changes in coffee prices and export revenues of effective production constraints. Results indicate that a 10 per cent reduction of exports in the four major producing countries is estimated to increase world prices by 17 per cent and increase these countries' export revenues by 6 per cent in the long run. Other coffee exporters would increase their exports and therefore would gain proportionally more. Further gains would result from the additional production of alternative crops.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriele, Alberto & Vanzetti, David, 2005. "Long Black: Surviving the coffee crisis," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137867, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare05:137867
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.137867
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Vanzetti, David & Peters, Ralf, 2003. "Making Sense Of Agricultural Trade Policy Reform," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25858, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. M. Branchi & G. Gabriele & V. Spiezia, 1999. "Traditional Agricultural Exports, External Dependency And Domestic Price Policies. African Coffee Exports In A Comparative Perspective," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 140, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    4. Gilbert, Christopher L., 1996. "International Commodity Agreements: An obituary notice," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, January.
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