Estimating the Impact of Emergency Allotment Expiration on Grocery Spending Patterns of SNAP Households

This study estimates the impact of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Emergency Allotment (EA) expiration on monthly grocery spending among SNAP households. Using novel transaction-level food purchase data, we employ a stacked difference-in-differences (DID) framework to estimate the causal effects of EA expiration across 16 early-terminating states relative to those maintaining benefits through December 2022. We classify food purchases into perishable, storable, and splurge categories and estimate changes in both total and category-specific spending. Results show a significant decline in overall grocery spending of 14.55%, or $30.57 per household per month. Perishable, storable, and splurge food spending declined by 15.18% ($10.46), 14.85% ($7.62), and 14.64% ($11.18), respectively. Spending reductions are proportionally distributed, suggesting that SNAP households do not shift spending across food categories in response to benefit cuts. Heterogeneity analysis reveals disproportionate effects. Smaller households experience larger declines, with single- and two-person households reducing spending by 33.00% and 17.24%, compared to 11.34% for three-person and 10.20% for four-person households. Childless households cut spending by 17.11%, versus 11.78% for those with children. Reductions are 21.40% for Black households, 13.21% for Hispanic/Latino households, and 13.12% for White households. Low-income SNAP households reduced spending by 18.18%. Our findings show that EA benefit cuts lead to spending reductions without reallocation across food categories. These results suggest that policy makers may need to take into account difference changes across households with varying demographic characteristics to ensure that program changes will have their intended effects.