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Food Security in Mega-Countries: Quantity, Nutrition, and Ecology in a Shape Constrained Generalized Additive Model Framework

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  • Zhou, Mi
  • Cao, Yinchuan
  • Guan, Boyao
  • Hu, Wuyang
  • Huang, Li

Abstract

The growing human population poses severe challenges to food security, yet research on food security in the most populous countries, also known as mega-countries, remains limited. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of food security in mega-countries through the lenses of quantity, nutrition, and ecological security. A Shape Constrained Generalized Additive Model is employed to explore the nonlinear relationship between population size and food security, and to project future trends in food security among mega-countries. The results show that from 2001 to 2022, quantity security improved substantially, followed by nutrition security, while ecological security showed a declining trend. Disparities in food security across mega-countries have also widened. The relationship between population size and food security is nonlinear in various dimensions. Under our assumptions, food security is projected to decline in export-oriented mega-countries but improve in import-oriented ones. While urbanization tends to enhance food security, population aging may intensify food system pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Mi & Cao, Yinchuan & Guan, Boyao & Hu, Wuyang & Huang, Li, 2025. "Food Security in Mega-Countries: Quantity, Nutrition, and Ecology in a Shape Constrained Generalized Additive Model Framework," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360873, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea25:360873
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.360873
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