Peer Effects on Climate Change Beliefs

Understanding how climate change beliefs are shaped by social networks is critical for designing effective climate communication strategies, yet the degree of peer influence across spatial and political contexts remains insufficiently understood. This study examines the influence of peer counties on local climate change beliefs using a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model. We construct geographic, political, and economic peer networks at the county level and quantify the magnitude of peer effects. Results show that a 10% increase in climate change beliefs among peer counties is associated with a 4.2% to 9.2% increase in average beliefs within the focal county, depending on the network type. The geographic peer network exerts the strongest influence, with estimated effects ranging from 6.7% to 9.2%, followed by the political network, with effects between 4.2% and 7.5%. Counterfactual simulations reveal that targeting interventions at top key opinion leader (KOL) counties—those most connected in a network—is more effective than targeting counties with extreme belief levels or KOL counties with below-average beliefs. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers seeking to promote climate belief formation and encourage climate-friendly behaviors through network-informed interventions.