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Changing agricultural land-use in the United States and its implications for ecosystem services

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Abstract

Farmland in the United States has undergone significant transformation over the last decades. Productivity increases, the introduction of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), and the emergence of the biofuel industry have all contributed to significant land-use changes. The potential to produce cellulosic ethanol as well as climate change will continue to change the agricultural landscape. In this paper, we present preliminary results on the importance of the evolution of agricultural productivity in the future and how it changes the land-use allocation at the county level. In particular, we are interested in yield projections and their implications for ecosystem services. For this purpose, we use a simple optimization model predicting land-use at the county level for three crops and CRP land. Given differential yield increases varying by crop and county, the potential for land-sparing and distinct ecosystem services arises.

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  • Dumortier, Jerome, 2016. "Changing agricultural land-use in the United States and its implications for ecosystem services," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235653, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea16:235653
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.235653
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/235653/files/USAgLandUse%20AAEA%202016.pdf
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    1. Witsanu Attavanich & Bruce A. McCarl & Zafarbek Ahmedov & Stephen W. Fuller & Dmitry V. Vedenov, 2013. "Effects of climate change on US grain transport," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 638-643, July.
    2. Wang, Sun Ling & Heisey, Paul & Schimmelpfennig, David & Ball, Eldon, 2015. "Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States: Measurement, Trends, and Drivers," Economic Research Report 207954, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Jesse H. Ausubel & Iddo K. Wernick & Paul E. Waggoner, 2013. "Peak Farmland and the Prospect for Land Sparing," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38, pages 221-242, February.
    4. Dumortier, Jerome, 2015. "Impact of agronomic uncertainty in biomass production and endogenous commodity prices on cellulosic biofuel feedstock composition," IU SPEA AgEcon Papers 198707, Indiana University, IU School of Public and Environmental Affairs.
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy;

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