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The Timing of Rapid Farmland Conversion Events: Evidence from California's Differential Assessment Program

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  • Kovacs, Kent F.

Abstract

Using county-level panel data, we estimate duration models to study the timing of rapid farmland conversion events. Results suggest that income and the proximity to major highways are the principal determinants of rapid conversion events (and also responsible for prolonging these events). In particular, an increase in income of 1% is found to hasten the time to a rapid conversion event by 111% and to extend the time back to a slow state of conversion by 76%. On the other hand, valuable agricultural land and high property taxes extend the time to a rapid conversion event (and also hasten the time back to a slow state of conversion). An increase in the value of agricultural production per acre extends the time to a rapid conversion event by 14% and hastens the time to a slow state of conversion by 106%. Knowledge about the timing of rapid farmland conversion will help counties to better predict infrastructure needs and take steps to mitigate the traffic and environmental impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Kovacs, Kent F., 2009. "The Timing of Rapid Farmland Conversion Events: Evidence from California's Differential Assessment Program," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49252, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49252
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49252
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Farmland conversion; Semi-parametric duration analysis; Differential Assessment; Location and land use; Agricultural Finance; Land Economics/Use; R11; R21; R31;

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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