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Demand behavior of U.S. high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and its implication for the U.S. sweetener market: a cointegration analysis

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  • Lee, Dae-Seob
  • Kennedy, P. Lynn

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between U.S. HFCS demand and refined sugar price. A cointegration analysis is utilized to investigate possible linkages between these markets. The coefficients on the ECM have the expected signs, and they measure adjustments towards long-run equilibrium. The study result also shows that there is cointegration in a relationship including, HFCS price, the refined sugar price, and income. the increase in HFCS demand would affect primarily the quantity of sugar imports negatively. However, this study does not necessarily support such a conclusion due to the exclusion of noneconomic factors such as change in consumer preference and health concern.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Dae-Seob & Kennedy, P. Lynn, 2005. "Demand behavior of U.S. high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and its implication for the U.S. sweetener market: a cointegration analysis," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19564, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19564
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amani Elobeid & John Beghin, 2006. "Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 23-48, March.
    2. Lopez, Rigoberto A. & Sepulveda, Jorge L., 1985. "Changes In The U.S. Demand For Sugar And Implications For Import Policies," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 14(2), October.
    3. Lopez, Rigoberto A., 1990. "Economic Surpluses In The U.S. Sugar Market," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 19(1), April.
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    5. Hal Hill & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2012. "Introduction," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 129-142, August.
    6. Schmitz, Andrew & Seale, James L., Jr. & Schmitz, Troy G., 2003. "Sweetener-Ethanol Complex in Brazil, the United States, and Mexico: Do Corn and Sugar Prices Matter?," Policy Briefs 15666, University of Florida, International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center.
    7. Rendleman, C. Matthew & Hertel, Thomas W., 1993. "Do Corn Farmers Have Too Much Faith In The Sugar Program?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(01), July.
    8. Evans, Edward A. & Ward, Ronald W. & Davis, Carlton George, 2001. "Time Varying Parameters In The Demand For High Fructose Corn Syrup," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20541, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Koo, Won W. & Taylor, Richard D. & Mattson, Jeremy W., 2003. "Impacts Of The U.S.-Central America Free Trade Agreement On The U.S. Sugar Industry," Special Reports 23069, North Dakota State University, Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies.
    11. Charles Moss & Andrew Schmits, 2002. "Price behaviour in the US sweetener market: a cointegration approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(10), pages 1273-1281.
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    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

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