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Fundamentos del Tipo de Cambio Real en Chile

  • Rodrigo Cerda

    ()

    (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

  • Alvaro Donoso
  • Aldo Lema

Un modelo basado en la relación gasto-producto (efecto Salter-Swan) y los términos de intercambio, habría predicho un incremento más pronunciado del tipo de cambio real (TCR) en Chile durante la segunda mitad de los ’80, una caída menos acentuada entre 1990 y 1997, y un aumento más fuerte a partir de 1998 cuando irrumpió la crisis financiera internacional. Este trabajo incorpora en forma exhaustiva otros factores en la determinación de largo plazo del TCR, tanto de oferta como de demanda. Usando una definición de TCR construida con una mejor aproximación a precios de transables que la implícita en estudios previos, se confirma la influencia negativa de la relación gasto-producto y de los términos de intercambio, pero además se encuentra evidencia robusta de la presencia del efecto Balassa-Samuelson. En contraste, se descarta la existencia de un impacto negativo del gasto público sobre el TCR, en añadidura al recogido en el efecto Salter-Swan. Se encuentra que el efecto de esta última variable difiere según la composición sectorial de la producción (tamaño relativo del sector transable) y niveles de desempleo.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 244.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published as "Análisis del Tipo de Cambio Real: Chile 1986-1999", Cuadernos de Economía, Vol. 42, Nº 126, pp. 329-356, 2005.
Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:244
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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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  8. Larry A Sjaastad, 1996. "Recent Evolution of the Chilean Real Exchange Rate," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 33(98), pages 109-132.
  9. Patricio Arrau & Jorge Quiroz & Rómulo Chumacero, 1992. "Ahorro Fiscal y Tipo de Cambio Real," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 29(88), pages 349-386.
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