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Fundamentos del Tipo de Cambio Real en Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Cerda

    () (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)

  • Alvaro Donoso
  • Aldo Lema

Abstract

Un modelo basado en la relación gasto-producto (efecto Salter-Swan) y los términos de intercambio, habría predicho un incremento más pronunciado del tipo de cambio real (TCR) en Chile durante la segunda mitad de los '80, una caída menos acentuada entre 1990 y 1997, y un aumento más fuerte a partir de 1998 cuando irrumpió la crisis financiera internacional. Este trabajo incorpora en forma exhaustiva otros factores en la determinación de largo plazo del TCR, tanto de oferta como de demanda. Usando una definición de TCR construida con una mejor aproximación a precios de transables que la implícita en estudios previos, se confirma la influencia negativa de la relación gasto-producto y de los términos de intercambio, pero además se encuentra evidencia robusta de la presencia del efecto Balassa-Samuelson. En contraste, se descarta la existencia de un impacto negativo del gasto público sobre el TCR, en añadidura al recogido en el efecto Salter-Swan. Se encuentra que el efecto de esta última variable difiere según la composición sectorial de la producción (tamaño relativo del sector transable) y niveles de desempleo.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Cerda & Alvaro Donoso & Aldo Lema, 2003. "Fundamentos del Tipo de Cambio Real en Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 244, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  • Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:244
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    File URL: http://www.economia.uc.cl/docs/dt_244.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sjaastad, Larry A., 1998. "On exchange rates, nominal and real," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 407-439, June.
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    4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
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    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arend, Mario & Norambuena, Vivian, 2005. "Análisis para Chile del efecto de un shock adverso de términos de intercambio sobre el tipo de cambio y la cuenta corriente
      [Analysis of the Effects of a Negative Terms-of-Trade Shock over the Real
      ," MPRA Paper 27175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Vittorio Corbo & José Tessada, 2005. "Response to External and Inflation Schoks in a Small Open Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 2, pages 029-056 Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tipo de Cambio Real; fundamentales; productividad; Chile; efecto Balassa-Samuelson; efecto Salter-Swan;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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