IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea02/19708.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Bayesian Approach To Optimal Cross-Hedging Of Cottonseed Products Using Soybean Complex Futures

Author

Listed:
  • Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur
  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H.
  • Turner, Steven C.

Abstract

Cottonseed crushers face substantial risk in terms of input and output price variability and they are limited in their planning by the lack of viable futures markets for cottonseed or cottonseed products. This study examines the feasibility of cross-hedging cottonseed products using soybean complex futures. Bayesian tests for market efficiency are performed on the cash and futures prices. The test results reject the presence of nonstationary roots, leading to the conclusion that the markets are not efficient. Different cross-hedging strategies are designed and analyzed for eight different hedging horizons in order to maximize the expected profit and utility of the crusher. A Bayesian approach is employed to estimate the parameters, which is consistent with expected utility maximization in the presence of estimation risk. The investigation reveals that both whole cottonseed and cottonseed products can be successfully cross-hedged using soybean complex futures. The profitability of cross-hedging cottonseed products depends not only on the appropriate size of the contract but also on the optimal choice of strategy consistent with the time of placing and lifting hedge and the appropriate hedging horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur & Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Turner, Steven C., 2002. "A Bayesian Approach To Optimal Cross-Hedging Of Cottonseed Products Using Soybean Complex Futures," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19708, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea02:19708
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19708
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/19708/files/sp02ra01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.19708?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Jung-Hee & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1994. "Effect of Risk Aversion on Feeder Cattle Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 386-392, December.
    2. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    3. Lence, Sergio H & Hayes, Dermot J, 1994. "Parameter-Based Decision Making under Estimation Risk: An Application to Futures Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 345-357, March.
    4. Babcock, Bruce A. & Choi, E. Kwan & Feinerman, Eli, 1993. "Risk And Probability Premiums For Cara Utility Functions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-8, July.
    5. J. M. Antle & W. J. Goodger, 1984. "Measuring Stochastic Technology: The Case of Tulare Milk Production," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(3), pages 342-350.
    6. DeJong, David N. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1991. "Reconsidering 'trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 221-254, October.
    7. Heifner, Richard G., 1972. "Optimal Hedging Levels and Hedging Effectiveness in Cattle Feeding," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 24(2), pages 1-14, April.
    8. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1981. "Cross Hedging," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1182-1196, December.
    9. Kallberg, J. G. & Ziemba, W. T., 1979. "On the robustness of the Arrow-Pratt risk aversion measure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 21-26.
    10. Kandice H. Kahl, 1983. "Determination of the Recommended Hedging Ratio," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(3), pages 603-605.
    11. Roger A. Dahlgran, 2000. "Cross-hedging the cottonseed crush: A case study," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 141-158.
    12. James A. Chalfant & Robert N. Collender & Shankar Subramanian, 1990. "The Mean and Variance of the Mean-Variance Decision Rule," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(4), pages 966-974.
    13. Klein, Roger W, et al, 1978. "Decisions with Estimation Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1363-1387, November.
    14. Paul L. Fackler & Kevin P. McNew, 1993. "Multiproduct Hedging: Theory, Estimation, and an Application," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(3), pages 521-535.
    15. Jeffrey H. Dorfman, 1993. "Bayesian Efficiency Tests for Commodity Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1206-1210.
    16. Lester G. Telser, 1955. "Safety First and Hedging," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur & Turner, Steven C. & Costa, Ecio de Farias, 2001. "Cross-Hedging Cottonseed Meal," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2), pages 1-9.
    2. Dahlgran, Roger A., 2007. "Inventory and Transformation Hedging Effectiveness in Corn Crushing," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37557, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Lence, Sergio H. & Hayes, Dermot J., 1995. "Land Allocation In The Presence Of Estimation Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Costa, Ecio de Farias & Turner, Steven C., 2001. "Price Risk Management For Peanut Meal," Faculty Series 16656, University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    5. Dahlgran, Roger A., 2005. "Hedging Cash Flows from Commodity Processing," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19046, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Tabesh, Hamid, 1987. "Hedging price risk to soybean producers with futures and options: a case study," ISU General Staff Papers 1987010108000010306, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Wei Shi & Scott H. Irwin, 2005. "Optimal Hedging with a Subjective View: An Empirical Bayesian Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 918-930.
    8. Simmons, Phil, 1999. "Does Separation Theorem Explain Why Farmers Have So Little Interest In Futures Markets?," Working Papers 12933, University of New England, School of Economics.
    9. Wang, Xuecai & Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & McKissick, John C. & Turner, Steven C., 2001. "Optimal Marketing Decisions For Feeder Cattle Under Price And Production Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Shafer, Carl E., 1992. "Hedge Ratios and Basis Behavior: An Intuitive Insight?," Faculty Paper Series 257887, Texas A&M University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    11. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management in Agricultural Markets: A Survey," Staff Papers 121140, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    12. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, December.
    13. Tronstad, Russell, 1989. "Optimal Cash Grain Sale, Storage, and Hedging Decisions for Grain Producers: A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Analysis," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270518, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Kim, Jae-Gyeong, 1993. "Futures markets in an open economy," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011461, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. David J. Pannell & Getu Hailu & Alfons Weersink & Amanda Burt, 2008. "More reasons why farmers have so little interest in futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 41-50, July.
    16. Su, EnDer, 2013. "Stock index hedge using trend and volatility regime switch model considering hedging cost," MPRA Paper 49190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Osuntuyi, Anthony, 2018. "Markov switching GARCH models for Bayesian hedging on energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 545-562.
    18. Lence, Sergio H., 1996. "Relaxing The Assumptions Of Minimum-Variance Hedging," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-17, July.
    19. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 1994. "The Empirical Minimum-Variance Hedge," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(1), pages 94-104.
    20. Bessler, Wolfgang & Leonhardt, Alexander & Wolff, Dominik, 2016. "Analyzing hedging strategies for fixed income portfolios: A Bayesian approach for model selection," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 239-256.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marketing;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea02:19708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.