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Anticipatory cash transfers for climate resilience – evidence from a randomized experiment in Northeast Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Balana, Bedru
  • Adeyanju, Dolapo
  • Clingain, Clare
  • de Brauw, Alan
  • Andam, Kwaw
  • Yohanna, Ishaku
  • Olarewaju, Olukunbi
  • Schneider, Molly

Abstract

This paper presents the findings from an experimental study designed to assess the impacts of a one-off large lump sum anticipatory cash transfers on welfare and coping strategies of smallholders in climate-risk and conflict-affected communities in northeast Nigeria. The central hypothesis of the intervention is that when climate vulnerable communities have timely access to information and the financial and social resources to act upon that information, they will avoid negative coping strategies and build more diversified and climate resilient livelihoods. The study transferred a lump sum of anticipatory cash to a randomly sampled group of 725 households (‘treatment’) based on a climate data risk threshold for flooding. An equal number of comparable households (‘control’) received the same amount of cash after the flooding. The study collected baseline and endline data from the sample of 1450 households and analyzed using a pre-defined econometric model. Several indicators of outcomes including food security, climate adaptive and resilience actions, and wellbeing measures were used to assess the intervention. The results indicate that anticipatory cash has significant impacts on reducing negative coping strategies, increasing the number of pre-emptive climate adaptive actions, and increasing investment in productive assets that could enhance future resilience. On other hand, anticipatory actions do not seem to have significant impacts on short-term food and non-food consumption expenditures. In a nutshell, findings indicate that a one-off large sum anticipatory transfer could lead households to build their climate resilience, and hence a promising intervention to reduce vulnerability of households to future climate shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Balana, Bedru & Adeyanju, Dolapo & Clingain, Clare & de Brauw, Alan & Andam, Kwaw & Yohanna, Ishaku & Olarewaju, Olukunbi & Schneider, Molly, 2023. "Anticipatory cash transfers for climate resilience – evidence from a randomized experiment in Northeast Nigeria," 2023 Seventh AAAE/60th AEASA Conference, September 18-21, 2023, Durban, South Africa 365878, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaae23:365878
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.365878
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ashley Pople & Ruth Hill & Stefan Dercon & Ben Brunckhorst, 2021. "Anticipatory Cash Transfers in Climate Disaster Response," CSAE Working Paper Series 2021-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    2. Dietrich, Stephan & Schmerzeck, Georg, 2019. "Cash transfers and nutrition: The role of market isolation after weather shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid & Noraliani Alias & Eun-Sung Chung, 2018. "Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    4. Adelaja, Adesoji & George, Justin, 2019. "Effects of conflict on agriculture: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 184-195.
    5. Norbert Schady & Ariel Fiszbein & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Niall Keleher & Margaret Grosh & Pedro Olinto & Emmanuel Skoufias, 2009. "Conditional Cash Transfers : Reducing Present and Future Poverty," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2597, April.
    6. Deon Filmer & Kinnon Scott, 2012. "Assessing Asset Indices," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(1), pages 359-392, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adusumalli, Nidhila & Batmunkh, Odbayar & Christian, Paul J. & Dunsch, Felipe & Heirman, Jonas & Kelley, Erin & Kondylis, Florence & Lane, Gregory & Malhotra, Kriti & Waidler, Jennifer, 2025. "Fast Action for Floods : RCT Evidence on Forecast-based Cash Transfers from Bangladesh and Nepal," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11244, The World Bank.
    2. Ahmed, Akhter & Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab & Hoddinott, John F. & Roy, Shalini, 2024. "Does nutrition-sensitive social protection build longer-term resilience? Experimental evidence from Bangladesh," IFPRI discussion papers 2282, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Hidrobo, Melissa & Mueller, Valerie & Roy, Shalini & Fall, Cheikh Modou Noreyni & Lavaysse, Christophe & Belli, Anna, 2024. "Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali," IFPRI discussion papers 2301, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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