The Determinants of Unemployment Rate in Developing Economies: Does Banking System Credit Matter?

In developing countries, banks play a major role by acting as a conduit for the effective mobilization of funds from the surplus sectors of an economy for onward lending to the deficit sectors for productive investments that will in turn increase the level of employment and economic growth. There has being a rising trend in unemployment rate in Nigeria and South Africa and hence, the need for the study to assess the effectiveness of banking system credit in curbing unemployment rate by making a comparative analysis of Nigeria and South Africa covering period of 1991 to 2018. The study employed the unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model and VAR impulse response function in determining the relationship between the variables. The major findings revealed that banking system credit matters in curbing unemployment rate in South Africa than in Nigeria. Also, other macroeconomic factors such as lending rate, inflation rate, Government expenditure and population growth were significant enough in influencing unemployment rate in South Africa than in Nigeria. While foreign direct investment was a significant factor in reducing unemployment rate in Nigeria than in South Africa. The cointegration test showed a long-run relationship between the variables in both countries while the speed of adjustment coefficient of the vector error correction model is faster in South Africa than in Nigeria. Previous empirical studies on the relationship between banking system credit and unemployment rate have focused much on other regions such as Asia and Europe. Thus, the study is unique as it focused on the African region and also made a comparative analysis by testing the Keynesian theory of employment, interest and money on two emerging African economies which are Nigeria and South Africa.