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Real Adjustment and Exchange Rate Dynamics

In: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics

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  • J. Peter Neary
  • Douglas D. Purvis

Abstract

This paper presents a model designed to cast some light on the nature of macroeconomic responses to sectoral shocks and to provide a basis for investigation of the interaction between resource allocation and exchange-rate variability. We first develop the implications for the dynamics of the real exchange rate of a Marshallian distinction between short - and long-run supply responses to an endogenous disturbance. Marshall's partial-equilibrium analysis stressed the overshooting of a relative price due to short-run factor fixity ; our analysis derives this result in a general equilibrium context. (However, in the general-equilibrium model it is possible that the long-run price response is perverse so that, rather than overshooting, the short-run relative price response would actually be in the "wrong direction".) We then extend the framework to incorporate the behaviour of money prices in the face of these changing relative prices. The model focusses on monetary equilibrium combined with rational speculation ; the dynamic behaviour of the nominal exchange rate exhibits a straightforward dependence on that of the real exchange rate. But the latter is independent of monetary equilibrium and, in particular, of any speculative behaviour ; any influence of specularors on the nominal exchange rate gives rise to identical movements in the equilibrium nominal price of services.
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Suggested Citation

  • J. Peter Neary & Douglas D. Purvis, 1983. "Real Adjustment and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 285-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11383
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(5), pages 845-859.
    2. Bruno, Michael, 1982. " Adjustment and Structural Change under Supply Shocks," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 199-221.
    3. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," NBER Working Papers 0852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," NBER Working Papers 0852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Karlygash Kuralbayeva & David Vines, 2008. "Shocks to Terms of Trade and Risk-premium in an Intertemporal Model: The Dutch Disease and a Dutch Party," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 277-303, July.
    3. Matsen, Egil & Roisland, Oistein, 2005. "Interest rate decisions in an asymmetric monetary union," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 365-384, June.
    4. Matsen, Egil & Torvik, Ragnar, 2005. "Optimal Dutch disease," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 494-515, December.
    5. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Vines, David, 2006. "Terms of Trade Shocks in an Intertemporal Model: Should We Worry about the Dutch Disease or Excessive Borrowing?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1989. "Fiscal deficits and relative prices in a growing world economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-484, May.
    7. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    8. Masanao Aoki & Sebastian Edwards, 1982. "Export Boom and Dutch Disease: A Dynamic Analysis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 269, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    10. van Wincoop, Eric, 1995. "A note on short-term intersectoral factor immobility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 845-856, May.
    11. Albert, Max & Meckl, Jürgen, 1991. "Expectations and adjustment dynamics in a two-sector model of a small open economy," Discussion Papers, Series II 132, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    12. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.

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