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Expectations and adjustment dynamics in a two-sector model of a small open economy

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  • Albert, Max
  • Meckl, Jürgen

Abstract

This paper generalizes the analysis in Albert (1989) and Meckl (1990) of adjustment in a dynamic specific-factors model with endogenous capital stocks. Capital reallocation and accumulation are consequences of investment decisions and depreciation. The Investment process is analyzed under a spectrum of expectations which include rational, adaptive, and static expectations as special cases. Only with rational expectations the speed of adjustment is optimal; adjustment is too fast if expectations are biased towards the status quo, and too slow if expectations are biased towards long-run values. Local and global analysis of the adjustment path show sharp qualitative differences. Non-monotonic adjustment of capital stocks and the social product is possible and is not necessarily the result of expectational errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert, Max & Meckl, Jürgen, 1991. "Expectations and adjustment dynamics in a two-sector model of a small open economy," Discussion Papers, Series II 132, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mussa, Michael, 1978. "Dynamic Adjustment in the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 775-791, October.
    2. Murphy, Robert G., 1988. "Sector-specific capital and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 7-12, March.
    3. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 675-692, May.
    4. Meckl, Jürgen, 1990. "Dynamic adjustment in open economies," Discussion Papers, Series II 121, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    5. J. Peter Neary & Douglas D. Purvis, 1983. "Real Adjustment and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 285-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert G. Murphy, 1989. "Stock Prices, Real Exchange Rates, and Optimal Capital Accumulation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 102-129, March.
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    8. Robert G. Murphy, 1990. "The Terms of Trade, Investment, and the Current Account," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 202, Boston College Department of Economics.
    9. Albert, Max, 1989. "Capital mobility and costs of adjustment," Discussion Papers, Series II 96, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    10. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1988. "Terms-of-Trade, Factor Intensities and the Current Account in a Life-Cycle Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(2), pages 247-262.
    11. Brock, Philip L., 1988. "Investment, the current account, and the relative price of non-traded goods in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3-4), pages 235-253, May.
    12. Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 43-65, February.
    13. Winters,L. Alan & Venables,Anthony (ed.), 1991. "European Integration," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405287, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Albert, Max, 1995. "Expectations and adjustment dynamics in the specific-factors model: Correction and extension," Discussion Papers, Series II 246, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".

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