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Ökonomische Effekte eines Brexit auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft


  • Gabriel Felbermayr


  • Jasmin Katrin Gröschl
  • Inga Heiland
  • Martin Braml


  • Marina Steininger



Am 29. März 2017 notifizierte die britische Regierung ihren Austrittswillen nach Art. 50 des EU-Vertrages bei der EU. Der Brexit ist somit offiziell eingeleitet. Am 29. April haben die Staats- und Regierungschefs beim Europäischen Rat nach Art. 50 EUV die Leitlinien für die Verhandlungen zwischen der EU und dem VK beschlossen. In der nächsten Zeit werden die Verhandlungen zunächst zu wichtigen Fragen des Austritts beginnen. Wenn der Europäische Rat hierbei ausreichende Fortschritte feststellt, können Gespräche über die zukünftigen politischen und wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen zwischen der EU27 und dem Vereinigten Königreich (VK) beginnen. Doch wie werden sich beide Verhandlungspartner verhalten? Ist ein harter Brexit und eine völlige Umorientierung seitens des Vereinigten Königreichs wirtschaftlich besser oder sollte man versuchen die bestehenden wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen möglichst zu erhalten und dem VK weitgehend entgegenkommen?

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Inga Heiland & Martin Braml & Marina Steininger, 2017. "Ökonomische Effekte eines Brexit auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 85, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:85

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jung, Benjamin, 2012. "Gradualism and dynamic trade adjustment: Revisiting the pro-trade effect of free trade agreements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 63-66.
    2. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    3. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
    4. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
    6. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    7. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    8. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    9. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Clemens Fuest & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Daniel Stöhlker, 2017. "Economic Effects of Brexit on the European Economy," EconPol Policy Reports 4, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. repec:zbw:rwikon:177920 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Behm, Philipp, 2017. "Fiskalische Konsequenzen des Brexit," DSi kompakt 29, DSi - Deutsches Steuerzahlerinstitut des Bundes der Steuerzahler e.V., Berlin.
    4. repec:ces:ifofob:93 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Entwicklung; Außenhandel; Konjunktur; Wirkungsanalyse; EU-Mitgliedschaft; Großbritannien; Deutschland; Eurozone; Brexit;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other


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