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Brexit: Eine “Hard-but-Smart”–Strategie und ihre Folgen

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  • Gabriel Felbermayr

Abstract

Ein harter Brexit ist für das Vereinigte Königreich sehr viel teurer als für die EU. Mit einer »Hard-but-Smart«-Strategie dagegen würde das UK unilateral auf alle neuen Barrieren, also völlig auf Importzölle, verzichten. Damit ist der prozentuelle Wohlfahrtsverlust des UK und jener auf dem Kontinent nicht mehr substanziell unterschiedlich. Dies verändert die Verhandlungssituation grundlegend. Die Analyse legt nahe, dass sich die EU-Kommission nicht stur auf das für London unakzeptable Austrittsabkommen festlegen, sondern konstruktiv Alternativen ausarbeiten sollte.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr, 2019. "Brexit: Eine “Hard-but-Smart”–Strategie und ihre Folgen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(04), pages 27-33, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:04:p:27-33
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Brexit: The Economics of International Disintegration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 163-184, Fall.
    2. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Clemens Fuest & Hans Gersbach & Albrecht O. Ritschl & Marcel Thum & Martin T. Braml, 2019. "Hard Brexit ahead: breaking the deadlock," EconPol Policy Brief 12, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Berthold Busch & Jürgen Matthes, 2016. "Brexit: The Economic Impact – A Survey," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(02), pages 37-44, August.
    4. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Inga Heiland & Martin Braml & Marina Steininger, 2017. "Ökonomische Effekte eines Brexit auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 85.
    5. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Gröschl & Marina Steininger, 2022. "Quantifying Brexit: from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 401-465, May.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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