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Unsicherheit über Brexit-Modalitäten prägt Konjunktur in Großbritannien

Author

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  • Döhrn, Roland
  • Rujin, Svetlana

Abstract

Prognosen der konjunkturellen Entwicklung in Großbritannien sind derzeit mit dem Problem behaftet, dass bis spätestens März 2019 über die Art und Weise des Austritts des Landes aus der EU entschieden sein muss. Je nachdem, wie diese Entscheidung aussieht, kann sich die wirtschaftliche Zukunft Großbritanniens günstiger (im Falle eines sanften Übergangs) oder ungünstiger im Falle eines harten Brexit darstellen. Ausgangspunkt dieses Beitrags ist eine Prognose für Großbritannien unter Status-quo -Bedingungen. Danach wird kurz auf verschiedenen Optionen der Gestaltung der künftigen Beziehungen Großbritanniens zur EU eingegangen. Anschließend werden mit Hilfe von Simulationen mit dem RWI-Mehrländermodell mögliche Abweichungen von der vorgelegten Prognose simuliert. Die Rechnungen zeigen in Übereinstimmung mit der seit dem Brexit-Referendum beobachteten Entwicklung des britischen Außenhandels, dass die kräftige Abwertung des Pfund Sterling nicht positiv auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Aktivität wirkte. Potenziell große Wirkungen hätten Einschränkungen des freien Warenverkehrs. Dämpfend auf die Wirtschaft wirkt auch, dass sich Unternehmen in der Phase der Unsicherheit mit Investitionen zurückhalten. Die Übertragungseffekte auf den übrigen Euro-Raum sind negativ, aber gering.

Suggested Citation

  • Döhrn, Roland & Rujin, Svetlana, 2017. "Unsicherheit über Brexit-Modalitäten prägt Konjunktur in Großbritannien," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 68(3), pages 49-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:171736
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    References listed on IDEAS

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