Should We Trust the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account?
The present value model of the current account has been very popular, as it provides an optimal benchmark to which actual current account series have often been compared. We show why persistence in observed current account data makes the estimated optimal series very sensitive to small-sample estimation error, making it almost impossible to determine whether the consumption-smoothing current account tracks the actual current account closely, or not closely at all. Moreover, the standard Wald test of the model will falsely accept or reject the model with substantial probability. Monte Carlo simulations and estimations using annual and quarterly data from five OECD countries strongly support our predictions. In particular, we conclude that two important consensus results in the literature - that the optimal series is highly correlated with the actual series, but substantially less volatile - are not statistically robust.
Volume (Year): 2 (2008)
Issue (Month): ()
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- Paul Bergin & Steven Sheffrin, .
"Interest Rates, Exchange Rates And Present Value Models Of The Current Account,"
Department of Economics
97-22, California Davis - Department of Economics.
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- Steven M. Sheffrin & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates And Present Value Models Of The Current Account," Working Papers 9722, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
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NBER Working Papers
7609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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