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Global Patents on 3D Printing: Revelations Based on Vector Autoregression Analysis for Three Decades

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  • Rohit S. Kannattukunnel

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Mumbai, Mumbai 400032, Maharashtra, India)

Abstract

Engineers and designers from automotive and aerospace sectors have been using 3D printing (3DP) for decades to build prototypes. However, 3DP became popular only recently. This paper is divided into three sections. Section 1 is introductory in nature, which deals with current trends, the modeling process of printing and deliberation on different categories of 3DP. Section 2 deals with the research methodology. An exquisite technique to study innovation dealing with time series data, called the vector autoregression (VAR), is performed to analyze the world patent data on 3DP, based on the information provided by the Government of UK and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Section 3 attempts to forecast future trends on 3DP by using two techniques viz. impulse response function and variance decomposition. The VAR analysis performed revealed that GDP is not directly instrumental in the advancement in patenting of 3DP technology. Results captured by way of impulse response function suggest that when a shock is given to PR itself, it decreases sharply, whereas when a shock is given to investment, PR undergoes a steady decline. Thus, if there is any adverse shock imparted on investments, it directly reduces the patent ratio. Lastly, when an impulse is given to GDP, PR continuously increases, which implies that increase in GDP causes hike in investment which ultimately increases PR. The results of variance decomposition indicate that in the initial periods, PR itself explains the maximum variance, followed by the GDP and to the least by investment. The changes observed with the trend of explanatory character of variance imply that more investments in technology are instrumental in increasing patent ratio in the G7 countries as per the vector error correction (VEC) model developed here. Though during the nascent stage of emerging technologies investment in technology may not necessarily increase the patent ratio, the result obtained brings to light interesting insights.

Suggested Citation

  • Rohit S. Kannattukunnel, 2016. "Global Patents on 3D Printing: Revelations Based on Vector Autoregression Analysis for Three Decades," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(06), pages 1-27, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijitmx:v:13:y:2016:i:06:n:s0219877017500043
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219877017500043
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    Cited by:

    1. Harm-Jan Steenhuis & Xin Fang & Tolga Ulusemre, 2020. "Global Diffusion of Innovation during the Fourth Industrial Revolution: The Case of Additive Manufacturing or 3D Printing," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(01), pages 1-34, February.
    2. Giacomo Marzi & Lamberto Zollo & Andrea Boccardi & Cristiano Ciappei, 2018. "Additive Manufacturing in SMEs: Empirical Evidences from Italy," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-22, February.

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    Keywords

    Patent; 3D printer; VAR;
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