IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/natres/v49y2025i4p3511-3530.html

Navigating the environmental impact of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from load capacity curve hypothesis in BRICST economies

Author

Listed:
  • Khatib Ahmad Khan
  • Phan The Cong
  • Ali Abbas
  • Paiman Ahmad
  • Nguyen Ngoc Quynh
  • Minh‐Quang Nguyen
  • Ahsan Anwar

Abstract

Global warming, climate disruptions, and environmental challenges are significant concerns in the present era, placing socioeconomic burdens on nations globally as humanity progresses at an unprecedented pace. In this framework, the load capacity factor (LCF) has evolved to demonstrate the environment‐damaging behavior of the population and nature's reaction to such damage. Thus, improving LCF by economies has become crucial for attaining the sustainable development goals (SDGs). In doing so, the current study scrutinizes the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), economic growth (EG), renewable energy consumption (REC), natural resource rent (NRR), and financial development (FD) on LCF in BRICST economies during 1990–2020. We use the panel quantile regression (PQR) technique for empirical outcomes. The PQR technique can capture the heterogeneous role of explanatory factors. The empirical results of the PQR method validate the U‐shaped LCC hypothesis through the non‐linear evaluation of EG and LCF. Furthermore, results reveal that GPR, EPU, and FD adversely affect environmental quality. However, REC and NRR's supportive role in improving LCF is found. Keeping in view these empirical results, the study suggests an extensive policy framework for attaining the objectives of SDG 13 (climate change), SDG 08 (decent work and economic growth ), SDG 16 (peace for sustainable development), SDG 12 (responsible consumption and production), and SDG 07 (clean energy) in BRICST economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Khatib Ahmad Khan & Phan The Cong & Ali Abbas & Paiman Ahmad & Nguyen Ngoc Quynh & Minh‐Quang Nguyen & Ahsan Anwar, 2025. "Navigating the environmental impact of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from load capacity curve hypothesis in BRICST economies," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 3511-3530, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:49:y:2025:i:4:p:3511-3530
    DOI: 10.1111/1477-8947.12538
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.12538
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1477-8947.12538?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Oguzhan Cepni & I. Ethem Guney & Norman R. Swanson, 2020. "Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 18-36, January.
    3. Huafang Huang & Sharafat Ali & Yasir Ahmed Solangi, 2023. "Analysis of the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Environmental Sustainability in Developed and Developing Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    4. Qiang Wang & Fuyu Zhang & Rongrong Li, 2024. "Free trade and carbon emissions revisited: The asymmetric impacts of trade diversification and trade openness," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 876-901, February.
    5. Xu, Pei & Hussain, Muzzammil & Ye, Chengang & Wang, Jiangquan & Wang, Chen & Geng, Jinzhou & Liu, Yiding & Chen, Jingwei, 2022. "Natural resources, economic policies, energy structure, and ecological footprints’ nexus in emerging seven countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Muhammad Khalid Anser & Qasim Raza Syed & Hooi Hooi Lean & Andrew Adewale Alola & Munir Ahmad, 2021. "Do Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Lead to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, May.
    7. Frodyma, Katarzyna & Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve in the European Union countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    8. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Ertugrul, Hasan Murat, 2023. "Do the Kyoto Protocol, geopolitical risks, human capital and natural resources affect the sustainability limit? A new environmental approach based on the LCC hypothesis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Damette, Olivier & Delacote, Philippe, 2012. "On the economic factors of deforestation: What can we learn from quantile analysis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2427-2434.
    10. Xue, Chaokai & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ahmed, Zahoor & Ahmad, Mahmood & Sinha, Avik, 2022. "Clean energy consumption, economic growth, and environmental sustainability: What is the role of economic policy uncertainty?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 899-907.
    11. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    12. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    13. Yu, Jian & Shi, Xunpeng & Guo, Dongmei & Yang, Longjian, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and firm carbon emissions: Evidence using a China provincial EPU index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Abebe Hailemariam & Kris Ivanovski, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical risk on tourism," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(22), pages 3134-3140, November.
    15. Hong, Yanran & Xu, Pengfei & Wang, Lu & Pan, Zhigang, 2022. "Relationship between the news-based categorical economic policy uncertainty and US GDP: A mixed-frequency Granger-causality analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    16. Badar Alam Iqbal, 2022. "BRICS as a Driver of Global Economic Growth and Development," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(1), pages 7-8, January.
    17. Atsu, Francis & Adams, Samuel, 2021. "Energy consumption, finance, and climate change: Does policy uncertainty matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 490-501.
    18. David I. Stern, 2017. "The environmental Kuznets curve after 25 years," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 7-28, April.
    19. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    20. Dogan, Eyup & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Luni, Tania, 2021. "Analyzing the impacts of geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty on natural resources rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    21. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    22. Saud, Shah & Haseeb, Abdul & Haider Zaidi, Syed Anees & Khan, Irfan & Li, Huiyun, 2024. "Moving towards green growth? Harnessing natural resources and economic complexity for sustainable development through the lens of the N-shaped EKC framework for the European Union," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    23. Shittu, Waliu & Adedoyin, Festus Fatai & Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim & Musibau, Hammed Oluwaseyi, 2021. "An investigation of the nexus between natural resources, environmental performance, energy security and environmental degradation: Evidence from Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    24. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2016. "Effects of US policy uncertainty on Swedish GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 443-462, March.
    25. Sokratis Mitsas & Petros Golitsis & Khurshid Khudoykulov, 2022. "Investigating the impact of geopolitical risks on the commodity futures," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2049477-204, December.
    26. Adams, Samuel & Adedoyin, Festus & Olaniran, Eniola & Bekun, Festus Victor, 2020. "Energy consumption, economic policy uncertainty and carbon emissions; causality evidence from resource rich economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 179-190.
    27. Guo, Bingnan & Wang, Yu & Zhang, Hao & Liang, Chunyan & Feng, Yu & Hu, Feng, 2023. "Impact of the digital economy on high-quality urban economic development: Evidence from Chinese cities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    28. Ugur Korkut Pata & Banu Tanriover, 2023. "Is the Load Capacity Curve Hypothesis Valid for the Top Ten Tourism Destinations?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhenzhen Feng & Farah Durani & Ahsan Anwar & Paiman Ahmad & Qasim Raza Syed & Ali Abbas, 2025. "From brown to green: Are emerging countries moving in right direction? Testing the validity of LCC hypothesis," Energy & Environment, , vol. 36(8), pages 3714-3736, December.
    2. Hussain, Muzzammil & Lu, Tongrui & Chengang, Ye & Wang, Yiwen, 2023. "Role of economic policies, renewable energy consumption, and natural resources to limit carbon emissions in top five polluted economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Tuan-Hock Ng & Ying-San Lim & Ying-Zhee Lim & Kar-Hoong Chan & Chun-Teck Lye, 2024. "Is economic policy uncertainty detrimental to sustainability? Evidence from Asian countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 20885-20908, August.
    4. Lihui Tian & Xin Li, 2023. "Does climate policy uncertainty affect carbon emissions in China? A novel dynamic ARDL simulation perspective," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Zribi, Wissal & Boufateh, Talel & Lahouel, Bechir Ben & Urom, Christian, 2024. "Uncertainty shocks, investor sentiment and environmental performance: Novel evidence from a PVAR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Hussain, Ihtisham & Saqib, Abdul & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty and green energy in BRICS: Impacts on sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    7. Ibrahim Cutcu & Ali Altiner & Eda Bozkurt, 2025. "The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Environmental Quality: An Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis with the Novel QRPD Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Ma, Juan & Zhang, Jubao & Ali, Sajid & Nazar, Raima & Anser, Muhammad Khalid, 2024. "Strategic socioeconomic planning to address ecological footprints in an uncertain economic landscape," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Hummera Saleem & Muhammad Bilal Khan & Seyed Mohammadreza Mahdavian & Umar Nawaz Kayani, 2024. "The role of technological innovation, economic policy uncertainty, and poverty reduction in attaining environmental sustainability agenda: contextual evidence from developing South and East Asian Economies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(12), pages 30563-30597, December.
    10. Halldén, Filip & Hultberg, Anna & Ahmed, Ali & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Yahya, Muhammad & Troster, Victor, 2025. "The role of institutional quality on public renewable energy investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    11. Muhammad Sadiq & Syed Tauseef Hassan & Irfan Khan & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2024. "Policy uncertainty, renewable energy, corruption and CO2 emissions nexus in BRICS-1 countries: a panel CS-ARDL approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 21595-21621, August.
    12. Abid, Nabila & Ahmad, Fayyaz & Aftab, Junaid & Razzaq, Asif, 2023. "A blessing or a burden? Assessing the impact of Climate Change Mitigation efforts in Europe using Quantile Regression Models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    13. Marc Audi & Marc Poulin & Khalil Ahmad & Amjad Ali, 2025. "Modeling Disaggregate Globalization to Carbon Emissions in BRICS: A Panel Quantile Regression Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-24, March.
    14. Hang Su & Yong Geng & Xi-Qiang Xia & Quan-Jing Wang, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Social Development, Political Regimes and Environmental Quality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-15, February.
    15. Wenxia Shi & Danish & Burcu ozcan & Salahuddin khan, 2026. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Development, and Renewable Energy Consumption in BRIC," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 17(2), pages 4120-4139, April.
    16. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    17. Zouhaier Dhifaoui & Kaies Ncibi & Faicel Gasmi & Abulmajeed Abdallah Alqarni, 2023. "The Nexus between Climate Change and Geopolitical Risk Index in Saudi Arabia Based on the Fourier-Domain Transfer Entropy Spectrum Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-22, September.
    18. Huafang Huang & Sharafat Ali & Yasir Ahmed Solangi, 2023. "Analysis of the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Environmental Sustainability in Developed and Developing Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    19. Fazale Naeem & Yuping Deng & Muhammad Naveed, 2025. "The triple helix of environmental prosperity: Economic policy uncertainty, financial expansion, and green energy in a financially flourishing bloc," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 3911-3933, November.
    20. Lan Khanh Chu & Dung Phuong Hoang & Ha Thanh Le, 2025. "The interaction of public–private partnership investment in energy and geopolitical risk in influencing carbon dioxide emissions in E7 countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(7), pages 16417-16449, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:49:y:2025:i:4:p:3511-3530. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1477-8947 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.