IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jintdv/v38y2026i2p414-434.html

Machine Learning Approach for Decoding the Efficiency of the World's Largest Welfare Scheme ‘MGNREGA’: A Deep Dive Into Welfare State Dynamics and Local Heterogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Sandeep Tripathi
  • Pushpender Yadav

Abstract

Against the backdrop of liberal capitalist democracies, the welfare state has emerged as a crucial institution that aims to reconcile market‐driven economic growth with social justice imperatives. The introduction of MGNREGA in 2005 exemplifies welfare intervention with the objectives of poverty alleviation, livelihood security and the empowerment of marginalised communities. Drawing on concepts such as decommodification and the state‐in‐society approach, this study evaluates the efficiency of the MGNREGA across India's diverse sociocultural landscape. By employing a combined approach that integrates data envelopment analysis (DEA) and machine learning (ML) models, such as random forest, this study reveals efficient decision‐making units. This study identifies key efficiency drivers for exploring the relationships among resource allocation, workforce participation and various development outcomes achieved through MGNREGA across all 726 districts of India. By weaving together the threads of regional disparities, state capabilities and implementation outcomes, this study sheds light on the enigma of MGNREGA's uneven success across diverse states in India. Notably, nationally, 36.09% of the districts are efficient, 22.59% are moderately efficient, and 41.32% are inefficient. In essence, while financial factors are necessary for MGNREGA implementation, socio‐economic factors, rural infrastructure development and targeted interventions play pivotal roles in determining efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandeep Tripathi & Pushpender Yadav, 2026. "Machine Learning Approach for Decoding the Efficiency of the World's Largest Welfare Scheme ‘MGNREGA’: A Deep Dive Into Welfare State Dynamics and Local Heterogeneity," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 414-434, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:38:y:2026:i:2:p:414-434
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.70064
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.70064
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jid.70064?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gupta, Bhanu & Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop, 2016. "Local funds and political competition: Evidence from the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme in India," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 14-30.
    2. Clément Imbert & John Papp, 2015. "Labor Market Effects of Social Programs: Evidence from India's Employment Guarantee," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 233-263, April.
    3. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
    4. Ana S. Camanho & Giovanna D’Inverno, 2023. "Data Envelopment Analysis: A Review and Synthesis," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Pedro Macedo & Victor Moutinho & Mara Madaleno (ed.), Advanced Mathematical Methods for Economic Efficiency Analysis, pages 33-54, Springer.
    5. Narayanan, Sudha & Das, Upasak & Liu, Yanyan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2017. "The “Discouraged Worker Effect” in Public Works Programs: Evidence from the MGNREGA in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 31-44.
    6. Shankar, Shylashri & Gaiha, Raghav, 2013. "Battling Corruption: Has NREGA Reached India's Rural Poor?," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198085003.
    7. Hare Krisna Kundo & Martin Brueckner & Rochelle Spencer & John Davis, 2021. "Mainstreaming climate adaptation into social protection: The issues yet to be addressed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 953-974, August.
    8. Karthikeya Naraparaju, 2017. "Unemployment Spells in India: Patterns, Trends, and Covariates," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 60(4), pages 625-646, December.
    9. Narayanan, Sudha & Das, Upasak & Liu, Yanyan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2017. "The “Discouraged Worker Effect†in public works programs: Evidence from the MGNREGA in India," IFPRI discussion papers 1633, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Tillin, Louise & Deshpande, Rajeshwari & Kailash, K. K. (ed.), 2015. "Politics of Welfare: Comparisons Across Indian States," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199460120.
    11. R. D. Banker & A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1984. "Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(9), pages 1078-1092, September.
    12. Keyur Thaker & Vincent Charles & Abhay Pant & Tatiana Gherman, 2022. "A DEA and random forest regression approach to studying bank efficiency and corporate governance," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(6), pages 1258-1277, June.
    13. Karthik Muralidharan & Paul Niehaus & Sandip Sukhtankar, 2016. "Building State Capacity: Evidence from Biometric Smartcards in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2895-2929, October.
    14. Drèze, Jean & Khera, Reetika, 2017. "Recent Social Security Initiatives in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 555-572.
    15. Lant Pritchett, Michael Woolcock, Matt Andrews, 2010. "Capability Traps? The Mechanisms of Persistent Implementation Failure - Working Paper 234," Working Papers 234, Center for Global Development.
    16. Isabella Melissa Gebert & Felipa de Mello‐Sampayo, 2025. "Navigating the Path to Sustainable Development in BRICS Countries," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(8), pages 1640-1653, November.
    17. Sudha Narayanan & Karthikeya Naraparaju & Nicolas Gerber, 2023. "An assessment of India's multiple national social protection schemes in improving nutrition and health," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(5), pages 1215-1229, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deininger, Klaus & Liu, Yanyan, 2019. "Heterogeneous welfare impacts of National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme: Evidence from Andhra Pradesh, India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 98-111.
    2. Klonner, Stefan & Oldiges, Christian, 2022. "The welfare effects of India’s rural employment guarantee," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Das, Upasak & Maiorano, Diego, 2019. "Post-clientelistic initiatives in a patronage democracy: The distributive politics of India’s MGNREGA," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 239-252.
    4. Nishtha Gupta & Jolly Puri & Gautam Setia, 2025. "Profit efficiency estimation and prediction of banks with mixed structure: a unified DDF-based network DEA and ML approach," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 1-39, September.
    5. Georgios Tsaples & Jason Papathanasiou & Andreas C. Georgiou, 2022. "An Exploratory DEA and Machine Learning Framework for the Evaluation and Analysis of Sustainability Composite Indicators in the EU," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-27, June.
    6. Jorge Antunes & Peter Wanke & Thiago Fonseca & Yong Tan, 2023. "Do ESG Risk Scores Influence Financial Distress? Evidence from a Dynamic NDEA Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-32, May.
    7. Chau, Nancy H. & Liu, Yanyan & Soundararajan, Vidhya, 2017. "Political activism as a determinant of clientelistic transfers: Evidence from an Indian public works program," IFPRI discussion papers 1700, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Das, Ritanjan & Dey, Subhasish & Neogi, Ranjita, 2021. "Across the stolen Ponds: The political geography of social welfare in rural eastern India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Deininger, Klaus & Nagarajan, Hari K & Singh, Sudhir K, 2020. "Women's political leadership and economic empowerment: Evidence from public works in India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 277-291.
    10. Georgiou, Andreas C. & Tsaples, Georgios & Thanassoulis, Emmanuel, 2025. "Planning methods using data envelopment analysis and markov systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 326(3), pages 569-584.
    11. Rodriguez, Zachary, 2022. "The power of employment: Effects of India’s employment guarantee on women empowerment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Franz R. Hahn, 2007. "Determinants of Bank Efficiency in Europe. Assessing Bank Performance Across Markets," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 31499.
    13. Alperovych, Yan & Hübner, Georges & Lobet, Fabrice, 2015. "How does governmental versus private venture capital backing affect a firm's efficiency? Evidence from Belgium," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 508-525.
    14. Wang, Zhao-Hua & Zeng, Hua-Lin & Wei, Yi-Ming & Zhang, Yi-Xiang, 2012. "Regional total factor energy efficiency: An empirical analysis of industrial sector in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 115-123.
    15. Azarnoosh Kafi & Behrouz Daneshian & Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh, 2021. "Forecasting the confidence interval of efficiency in fuzzy DEA," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 31(1), pages 41-59.
    16. Ruiqing Yuan & Xiangyang Xu & Yanli Wang & Jiayi Lu & Ying Long, 2024. "Evaluating Carbon-Emission Efficiency in China’s Construction Industry: An SBM-Model Analysis of Interprovincial Building Heating," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Lopes, Ana Lúcia Miranda & de Pinho Matos, Giordano Bruno Braz, 2015. "Statistical evaluation of Data Envelopment Analysis versus COLS Cobb–Douglas benchmarking models for the 2011 Brazilian tariff revision," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 47-60.
    18. Ahmad, Usman, 2011. "Financial Reforms and Banking Efficiency: Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 34220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Bharti Seth & Punita Saxena & Shalini Arora, 2024. "Operational performance of Indian passenger airlines using hierarchical categorical DEA approach," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 15(4), pages 1415-1423, April.
    20. Ashrafi, Ali & Seow, Hsin-Vonn & Lee, Lai Soon & Lee, Chew Ging, 2013. "The efficiency of the hotel industry in Singapore," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 31-34.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:38:y:2026:i:2:p:414-434. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/5102/home .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.