IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/iecrev/v63y2022i2p671-698.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Friedman Rule: Experimental Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • John Duffy
  • Daniela Puzzello

Abstract

We evaluate the Friedman rule for optimal monetary policy in a laboratory economy based on Lagos–Wright (Journal of Economic Theory 145 (2010), 1508–24). We explore two implementations of Friedman's rule: one involving deflationary monetary policy and another where interest is paid on money. We compare the welfare consequences of the Friedman rule with two other policies: a constant money supply regime and a regime where the money supply grows at a constant k%. Counter to theory, we find that the Friedman rule is not welfare‐improving, performing no better than the constant money regime. By one welfare measure, the k% money growth rate regime performs best.

Suggested Citation

  • John Duffy & Daniela Puzzello, 2022. "The Friedman Rule: Experimental Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 671-698, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:63:y:2022:i:2:p:671-698
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12549
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12549
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/iere.12549?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffy, John & Matros, Alexander & Temzelides, Ted, 2011. "Competitive behavior in market games: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1437-1463, July.
    2. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2018. "Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy Design: Evidence From The Laboratory," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 1035-1075, June.
    3. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2004. "Deflation and Depression: Is There an Empirical Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 99-103, May.
    4. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1994. "Expectations and Learning under Alternative Monetary Regimes: An Experimental Approach," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(1), pages 131-162, January.
    5. Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2019. "Monetary policy under behavioral expectations: Theory and experiment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 193-212.
    6. Gabriele Camera & Dror Goldberg & Avi WeissBar-Ilan, 2020. "Endogenous Market Formation and Monetary Trade: An Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1553-1588.
    7. Anbarci, Nejat & Dutu, Richard & Feltovich, Nick, 2015. "Inflation tax in the lab: a theoretical and experimental study of competitive search equilibrium with inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 17-33.
    8. David J. Cooper & Kai-Uwe K?hn, 2014. "Communication, Renegotiation, and the Scope for Collusion," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 247-278, May.
    9. Uhlig, Harald, 2000. "Should We Be Afraid of Friedman's Rule?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 261-303, December.
    10. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "The optimum quantity of money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1067-1152, Elsevier.
    11. Duffy, John & Heinemann, Frank, 2021. "Central bank reputation, cheap talk and transparency as substitutes for commitment: Experimental evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 887-903.
    12. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000. "Why do monetary policies matter? An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 315-343, October.
    13. S. Boragan Aruoba & Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Sticky Prices versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-Offs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 60-90, January.
    14. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 198-230, February.
    15. Cornand, Camille & M'baye, Cheick Kader, 2018. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter? An Experimental Investigation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 362-401, March.
    16. Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Central bank communication that works: Lessons from lab experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 760-780.
    17. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-1107, September.
    18. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2021. "Managing self-organization of expectations through monetary policy: A macro experiment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 170-186.
    19. Fenig, Guidon & Mileva, Mariya & Petersen, Luba, 2018. "Deflating asset price bubbles with leverage constraints and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1-27.
    20. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under imperfect competition," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 183-209, June.
    21. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2016. "Uncertainty in forecasting inflation and monetary policy design: Evidence from the laboratory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 849-864.
    22. Stephen D. Williamson, 2012. "Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and the Financial Crisis: A New Monetarist Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2570-2605, October.
    23. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    24. Andolfatto, David, 2010. "Essential interest-bearing money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(4), pages 1495-1507, July.
    25. Altig,David E. & Smith,Bruce D. (ed.), 2003. "Evolution and Procedures in Central Banking," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521814270.
    26. Janet Hua (duplicate record) Jiang & Peter Norman & Daniela Puzzello & Bruno Sultanum & Randall Wright, 2021. "Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach," Working Paper 21-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    27. Chiu, Jonathan & Molico, Miguel, 2010. "Liquidity, redistribution, and the welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 428-438, May.
    28. Kenneth Burdett & Shouyong Shi & Randall Wright, 2001. "Pricing and Matching with Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1060-1085, October.
    29. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1995. "Does a constant money growth rule help stabilize inflation?: experimental evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 111-156, December.
    30. Araujo, Luis, 2004. "Social norms and money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 241-256, March.
    31. Arifovic, Jasmina & Petersen, Luba, 2017. "Stabilizing expectations at the zero lower bound: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-43.
    32. Gabriele Camera & Marco Casari, 2014. "The Coordination Value of Monetary Exchange: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 290-314, February.
    33. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1989. "On Money as a Medium of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 927-954, August.
    34. Guillaume R. Fréchette & Sevgi Yuksel, 2017. "Infinitely repeated games in the laboratory: four perspectives on discounting and random termination," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(2), pages 279-308, June.
    35. Jiang, Janet Hua & Zhang, Cathy, 2018. "Competing currencies in the laboratory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 253-280.
    36. Deck, Cary A. & McCabe, Kevin A. & Porter, David P., 2006. "Why stable fiat money hyperinflates: Results from an experimental economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 471-486, November.
    37. Ding, Shuze & Puzzello, Daniela, 2020. "Legal restrictions and international currencies: An experimental approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    38. Lagos, Ricardo, 2010. "Some results on the optimality and implementation of the Friedman rule in the Search Theory of Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(4), pages 1508-1524, July.
    39. Luba Petersen, 2015. "Do expectations and decisions respond to monetary policy?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 972-1004, November.
    40. Shapley, Lloyd S & Shubik, Martin, 1977. "Trade Using One Commodity as a Means of Payment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 937-968, October.
    41. Michihiro Kandori, 1992. "Social Norms and Community Enforcement," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 63-80.
    42. Rietz, Justin, 2019. "Secondary currency acceptance: Experimental evidence with a dual currency search model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 403-431.
    43. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright, 2017. "Liquidity: A New Monetarist Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(2), pages 371-440, June.
    44. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Marchesiani, 2022. "The Essentiality of Money in a Trading Post Economy with Random Matching," Working Papers 202223, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    2. Jiang, Janet Hua & Puzzello, Daniela & Zhang, Cathy, 2023. "Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Janet Hua (duplicate record) Jiang & Peter Norman & Daniela Puzzello & Bruno Sultanum & Randall Wright, 2021. "Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach," Working Paper 21-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Janet Hua & Puzzello, Daniela & Zhang, Cathy, 2023. "Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Davis, Douglas & Korenok, Oleg & Norman, Peter & Sultanum, Bruno & Wright, Randall, 2022. "Playing with money," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1221-1239.
    3. John Duffy & Daniela Puzzello, 2019. "The Friedman Rule in the Laboratory," 2019 Meeting Papers 541, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Janet Hua (duplicate record) Jiang & Peter Norman & Daniela Puzzello & Bruno Sultanum & Randall Wright, 2021. "Is Money Essential? An Experimental Approach," Working Paper 21-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    5. Jiang, Janet Hua & Puzzello, Daniela & Zhang, Cathy, 2021. "How long is forever in the laboratory? Three implementations of an infinite-horizon monetary economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 278-301.
    6. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    7. Ding, Shuze & Puzzello, Daniela, 2020. "Legal restrictions and international currencies: An experimental approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. John Duffy, 2022. "Why macroeconomics needs experimental evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 5-29, January.
    9. Anbarci, Nejat & Dutu, Richard & Feltovich, Nick, 2015. "Inflation tax in the lab: a theoretical and experimental study of competitive search equilibrium with inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 17-33.
    10. Janet Hua Jiang & Daniela Puzzello & Cathy Zhang, 2023. "Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory," Staff Working Papers 23-11, Bank of Canada.
    11. Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    12. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2014. "Experiments on Monetary Policy and Central Banking," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 167-227, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    13. Petersen, Luba & Rholes, Ryan, 2022. "Macroeconomic expectations, central bank communication, and background uncertainty: A COVID-19 laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    14. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7t8isspkbs8hk8kol9kk9sjdl6 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. John Duffy, 2008. "Macroeconomics: A Survey of Laboratory Research," Working Paper 334, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jun 2014.
    17. Galí, Jordi & Giusti, Giovanni & Noussair, Charles N., 2021. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Bubbles: A Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    18. Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    19. Huber, Samuel & Kim, Jaehong, 2017. "On the optimal quantity of liquid bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 184-200.
    20. Maria Bigoni & Gabriele Camera & Marco Casari, 2019. "Cooperation among strangers with and without a monetary system," Working Papers 19-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    21. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2015. "Macro-expérimentation autour des fonctions des banques centrales," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 3-47.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:63:y:2022:i:2:p:671-698. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.