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To Vaccinate or to Procrastinate? That is the Prevention Question

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  • Robert Nuscheler
  • Kerstin Roeder

Abstract

Invoking Yaari's dual theory, we develop a model of individual vaccination decisions that incorporates quasi‐hyperbolic discounting, risk aversion, and information. We test the resulting hypotheses for the flu season 2010/2011 using a representative German data set. We find a significant impact of time preferences on immunization decisions. The impact of the discount factor is significantly negative for exponential discounters. While present‐biased individuals' demand for vaccination is not statistically different from the one of exponential discounters, future‐biased individuals have a significantly higher probability to vaccinate. Stratification by gender reveals that these effects are entirely driven by men. That is, time preferences have no explanatory power for the vaccination decisions of women. This also applies to risk aversion, where more risk aversion implies a significantly higher probability to vaccinate for men but not women. All information measures turn out significant. Well‐informed individuals have a much higher propensity to vaccinate than poorly informed individuals. If policy makers aim at improving immunization rates, then our results suggest that public policy should concentrate on providing easily accessible and concise information on the flu and the flu shot. Our results on time preferences and risk preferences imply a rather inactive role for public policy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Nuscheler & Kerstin Roeder, 2016. "To Vaccinate or to Procrastinate? That is the Prevention Question," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1560-1581, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:25:y:2016:i:12:p:1560-1581
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.3268
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • H42 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Private Goods
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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