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Saving future lives. A comparison of three discounting models

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  • John A. Cairns
  • Marjon M. Van Der Pol

Abstract

This paper compares three models of intertemporal choice concerning saving future lives: the constant discounting model, the proportional discounting model and the hyperbolic discounting model. The three models were investigated using data collected from the general public. Since these data have a multilevel structure, ordinary least‐squares (OLS) estimates were supplemented by multilevel analysis. There is evidence in favour of the proportional (and to a lesser extent) the hyperbolic model over the constant discounting model. There is clear evidence for this data set that multilevel analysis is more appropriate than OLS. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Cairns & Marjon M. Van Der Pol, 1997. "Saving future lives. A comparison of three discounting models," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 341-350, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:6:y:1997:i:4:p:341-350
    DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1050(199707)6:4<341::AID-HEC277>3.0.CO;2-Y
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1050(199707)6:43.0.CO;2-Y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marjon M. Van Der Pol & John A. Cairns, 2000. "Negative and zero time preference for health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 171-175, March.
    2. S. Höjgård & U. Enemark & C. H. Lyttkens & A. Lindgren & T. Troëng & H. Weibull, 2002. "Discounting and clinical decision making: Physicians, patients, the general public, and the management of asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysms," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 355-370, June.
    3. Andrew Meyer, 2013. "Estimating discount factors for public and private goods and testing competing discounting hypotheses," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 133-173, April.
    4. Nigel Rice & Andrew Jones, 1997. "Multilevel models and health economics," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(6), pages 561-575, November.
    5. Han Bleichrodt & Jose Luis Pinto, 2012. "Conceptual Foundations for Health Utility Measurement," Chapters, in: Andrew M. Jones (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Health Economics, Second Edition, chapter 35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Bleichrodt, Han & Quiggin, John, 1999. "Life-cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost-benefit analysis?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 681-708, December.
    7. Alessandro Lizzeri & Leeat Yariv, 2017. "Collective Self-Control," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 213-244, August.
    8. Han Bleichrodt, 2002. "A new explanation for the difference between time trade‐off utilities and standard gamble utilities," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 447-456, July.
    9. Robert Nuscheler & Kerstin Roeder, 2016. "To Vaccinate or to Procrastinate? That is the Prevention Question," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(12), pages 1560-1581, December.
    10. Irvine, Alastair & van der Pol, Marjon & Phimister, Euan, 2019. "A comparison of professional and private time preferences of General Practitioners," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 256-264.
    11. Arthur E. Attema & Matthijs M. Versteegh, 2013. "Would You Rather Be Ill Now, Or Later?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(12), pages 1496-1506, December.
    12. Marjon M. Van Der Pol & John A. Cairns, 1998. "The efficient organization of blood donation," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(5), pages 455-463, August.
    13. Jamison Dean T. & Jamison Julian, 2011. "Characterizing the Amount and Speed of Discounting Procedures," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-56, April.
    14. Anne Spencer, 2001. "The Time Trade-Off Method: An Exploratory Study," Working Papers 437, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    15. Settle, Chad & Shogren, Jason F., 2004. "Hyperbolic discounting and time inconsistency in a native-exotic species conflict," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 255-274, June.
    16. Boyle, Patricia A & Yu, Lei & Segawa, Eisuke & Wilson, Robert S & Buchman, Aron S & Laibson, David I. & Bennett, David A, 2012. "Association of cognition with temporal discounting in community based older persons," Scholarly Articles 11726269, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    17. McDonald, R.L. & Chilton, S.M. & Jones-Lee, M.W. & Metcalf, H.R.T., 2017. "Evidence of variable discount rates and non-standard discounting in mortality risk valuation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-167.
    18. Cairns, John & van der Pol, Marjon, 2000. "Valuing future private and social benefits: The discounted utility model versus hyperbolic discounting models," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 191-205, April.

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