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Die WIFO-Schnellschätzung: Revisionsanalyse und Kurzbeschreibung der Methode

Author

Listed:
  • Jürgen Bierbaumer
  • Sandra Bilek-Steindl

Abstract

Dieser Beitrag untersucht das Revisionsausmaß in der WIFO-Schnellschätzung des BIP und seiner Teilaggregate für den Zeitraum III. Quartal 2020 bis II. Quartal 2025. Darüber hinaus stellt er kurz die aktuelle Methodik dar, welche seit der Neugestaltung im Jahr 2020 angewandt wird. Seither wird die WIFO-Schnellschätzung unabhängig von der vierteljährlichen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung (Quartals-VGR) der Statistik Austria erstellt. Grundlage der Revisionsanalyse ist ein Echtzeitdatensatz des WIFO, welcher den Stand der WIFO-Schnellschätzung und der Quartals-VGR zum jeweiligen Veröffentlichungszeitpunkt abbildet. Auf Basis von Standard-Revisionsmaßen wird gezeigt, dass die WIFO-Schnellschätzung des BIP eine unverzerrte erste Schätzung für die nachfolgende Veröffentlichung der Quartals-VGR durch Statistik Austria ist. Während der COVID-19-Krise nahmen mit der Volatilität des Wirtschaftsgeschehens sowohl die Spannweite der BIP-Veröffentlichungen als auch das Revisionsausmaß in der WIFO-Schnellschätzung zu.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Bierbaumer & Sandra Bilek-Steindl, 2025. "Die WIFO-Schnellschätzung: Revisionsanalyse und Kurzbeschreibung der Methode," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 98(12), pages 667-679, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2025:i:12:p:667-679
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