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Shopping Trip Choice Prediction for Assessing Store Relocation: a Joint Data-Driven and Behavioural Modelling Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hounwanou Sonagnon

    (Institut VEDECOM, 23 bis allée des Marronniers, 78000 Versailles, France)

  • Comi Antonio

    (University of Rome Tor Vergata, Department of Enterprise Engineering, 00133, Rome, Italy)

  • Gonzalez-Feliu Jesus

    (Excelia Business School, Center of Research in Innovation and Intelligence in Management, 102 rue de Coureilles, 17000 La Rochelle, France)

  • Gondran Natacha

    (Mines Saint-Etienne, CNRS, Univ Jean Monnet, Univ Lumière Lyon 2, Univ Lyon 3 Jean Moulin, ENS Lyon, ENTPE, ENSA Lyon, UMR 5600 EVS, Institut Henri Fayol, F - 42023 Saint-Etienne France)

Abstract

This paper proposes and tests a methodology to analyse end consumers’ choices in terms of shopping destination for a store selling culture products, comparing a city centre location to a peripheral one. The proposed methodology begins with a stated preferences survey and incorporates a conditional tree classification algorithm to pre-select the predictors (attributes), then used to develop a discrete choice model. To validate the methodology, a real-world case study was carried out, including a survey with over one thousand customer responses. The findings reveal noteworthy insights into customer attitudes toward relocation, distinguishing frequent from non-frequent users and examining factors such as travel distance and visit frequency. These results offer valuable guidance for retailers and policy makers in shaping city logistics scenarios, highlighting the potential transformations in urban freight flows driven by changes in retail land use.

Suggested Citation

  • Hounwanou Sonagnon & Comi Antonio & Gonzalez-Feliu Jesus & Gondran Natacha, 2025. "Shopping Trip Choice Prediction for Assessing Store Relocation: a Joint Data-Driven and Behavioural Modelling Approach," LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 104-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:logitl:v:16:y:2025:i:1:p:104-115:n:1010
    DOI: 10.2478/logi-2025-0010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J.S. Cramer & G. Ridder, 1988. "The Logit Model in Economics," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 42(4), pages 297-314, December.
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    3. Formánek, Tomáš & Sokol, Ondřej, 2022. "Location effects: Geo-spatial and socio-demographic determinants of sales dynamics in brick-and-mortar retail stores," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Huang, Arthur & Levinson, David, 2017. "A model of two-destination choice in trip chains with GPS data," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 51-62.
    5. Bruno Faivre d'Arcier & Odile Andan & Charles Raux, 1998. "Stated adaptation surveys and choice process: Some methodological issues," Post-Print halshs-00139993, HAL.
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