IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/quantf/v14y2014i6p1019-1030.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An information-based model of target stock price runup in the market for corporate control

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Brigida
  • Jeff Madura
  • Ariel Viale

Abstract

The stock price runup of target firms in the market for corporate control has been anecdotally attributed to inside trading. Moreover, the empirical merger and acquisitions literature documents a time-varying level and duration of the stock price runup of target firms. Using a market microstructure approach, we model stock price runup as a stochastic process that shifts between a random walk without drift and a predictable process dependent on a parsimonious set of state variables. Consistent with the market microstructure literature, predictability in prices can be exploited only by the informed trader. The model is capable of explaining the complex stylized facts observed in stock price runup. It is also consistent with the merger wave literature, as we find that capital liquidity, economic growth, and market valuations drive the complex dynamics of stock price runup.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Brigida & Jeff Madura & Ariel Viale, 2014. "An information-based model of target stock price runup in the market for corporate control," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 1019-1030, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:14:y:2014:i:6:p:1019-1030
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2012.749356
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14697688.2012.749356
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2008. "Strategic merger waves: A theory of musical chairs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Stulz, Rene M & Walkling, Ralph A & Song, Moon H, 1990. "The Distribution of Target Ownership and the Division of Gains in Successful Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 817-833, July.
    3. Schwert, G. William, 1996. "Markup pricing in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 153-192, June.
    4. Stoll, Hans R, 1978. "The Supply of Dealer Services in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1133-1151, September.
    5. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 2003. "Stock market driven acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 295-311, December.
    6. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    7. Ho, Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 1981. "Optimal dealer pricing under transactions and return uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-73, March.
    8. Brigida, Matthew & Madura, Jeff, 2012. "Sources of target stock price run-up prior to acquisitions," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 185-198.
    9. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "The Effect of Public Information and Competition on Trading Volume and Price Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 23-56.
    10. Harold Demsetz, 1968. "The Cost of Transacting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 33-53.
    11. Keown, Arthur J & Pinkerton, John M, 1981. "Merger Announcements and Insider Trading Activity: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 855-869, September.
    12. Harford, Jarrad, 2005. "What drives merger waves?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 529-560, September.
    13. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    14. Matthew Rhodes-Kropf & S. Viswanathan, 2004. "Market Valuation and Merger Waves," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2685-2718, December.
    15. Kerry Back & Shmuel Baruch, 2004. "Information in Securities Markets: Kyle Meets Glosten and Milgrom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 433-465, March.
    16. Back, Kerry, 1992. "Insider Trading in Continuous Time," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 387-409.
    17. repec:hrv:faseco:30748164 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:14:y:2014:i:6:p:1019-1030. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.