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Tenure Profiles and Efficient Separation in a Stochastic Productivity Model

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  • I. Sebastian Buhai
  • Coen N. Teulings

Abstract

We develop a theoretical model based on efficient bargaining, where both log outside productivity and log productivity in the current job follow a random walk. This setting allows the application of real option theory. We derive the efficient worker-firm separation rule. We show that wage data from completed job spells are uninformative about the true tenure profile. The model is estimated on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. It fits the observed distribution of job tenures well. Selection of favorable random walks can account for the concavity in tenure profiles. About 80% of the estimated wage returns to tenure is due to selectivity in the realized outside productivities.

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  • I. Sebastian Buhai & Coen N. Teulings, 2014. "Tenure Profiles and Efficient Separation in a Stochastic Productivity Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 245-258, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:32:y:2014:i:2:p:245-258
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2013.866568
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    Cited by:

    1. Cahuc, Pierre & Malherbet, Franck & Prat, Julien, 2019. "The Detrimental Effect of Job Protection on Employment: Evidence from France," IZA Discussion Papers 12384, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Michael Elsby & Axel Gottfries & Pawel Krolikowski & Gary Solon, 2023. "Wage Adjustment in Efficient Long-Term Employment Relationships," Working Papers 23-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. I. Sebastian Buhai & Miguel A. Portela & Coen N. Teulings & Aico van Vuuren, 2014. "Returns to Tenure or Seniority?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 705-730, March.
    4. Julien Prat, 2010. "The rate of learning-by-doing: estimates from a search-matching model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 929-962.
    5. Pieter A. Gautier & Coen N. Teulings, 2015. "Sorting And The Output Loss Due To Search Frictions," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1136-1166, December.
    6. Pieter A. Gautier & Coen N. Teulings, 2015. "Sorting And The Output Loss Due To Search Frictions," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1136-1166, December.
    7. Coen Teulings, 2010. "How to Share Our Risks Efficiently? Principles for Optimal Social Insurance and Pension Provision," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 1-21, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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