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Tenure Profiles and Efficient Separation in a Stochastic Productivity Model

Author

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  • Coen N. Teulings
  • Sebastian Buhai

Abstract

We develop a theoretical model based on efficient bargaining, where both log outside productivity and log productivity in the current job follow a random walk. This setting allows the application of real option theory. We derive the efficient worker-firm separation rule. We show that wage data from completed job spells are uninformative about the true tenure profile. The model is estimated on the PSID. It fits the observed distribution of job tenures well. Selection of favourable random walks can account for the concavity in tenure profiles. About 80% of the estimated wage returns to tenure is due to selectivity in the realized outside productivities.

Suggested Citation

  • Coen N. Teulings & Sebastian Buhai, 2013. "Tenure Profiles and Efficient Separation in a Stochastic Productivity Model," Discussion Papers 7, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    • Handle: RePEc:cel:dpaper:7
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Cahuc, Pierre & Malherbet, Franck & Prat, Julien, 2019. "The Detrimental Effect of Job Protection on Employment: Evidence from France," IZA Discussion Papers 12384, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Pieter A. Gautier & Coen N. Teulings, 2015. "Sorting And The Output Loss Due To Search Frictions," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1136-1166, December.
    4. Michael Elsby & Axel Gottfries & Pawel Krolikowski & Gary Solon, 2023. "Wage Adjustment in Efficient Long-Term Employment Relationships," Working Papers 23-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. I. Sebastian Buhai, 2025. "Real Option AI: Reversibility, Silence, and the Release Ladder," Papers 2511.16958, arXiv.org.
    6. Pieter A. Gautier & Coen N. Teulings, 2015. "Sorting And The Output Loss Due To Search Frictions," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1136-1166, December.
    7. I. Sebastian Buhai & Miguel A. Portela & Coen N. Teulings & Aico van Vuuren, 2014. "Returns to Tenure or Seniority?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 705-730, March.
    8. Coen Teulings, 2010. "How to Share Our Risks Efficiently? Principles for Optimal Social Insurance and Pension Provision," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 1-21, April.
    9. Julien Prat, 2010. "The rate of learning-by-doing: estimates from a search-matching model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 929-962.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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