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Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Amaral Haddad
  • Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli
  • Edson Paulo Domingues
  • Mauricio Aguiar

Abstract

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli & Edson Paulo Domingues & Mauricio Aguiar, 2011. "Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 44-61.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevef:v:3:y:2011:i:1:p:44-61
    DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2010.545891
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tourinho, Octávio Augusto Fontes & Kume, Honorio & Pedroso, Ana Cristina, 2007. "Elasticidades de Armington para o Brasil: 1986-2002," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 61(2), November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Edson Paulo Domingues & Kênia Barreiro de Souza, 2012. "The Welfare Impacts of Changes in the Brazilian Domestic Work Market," Working Papers 96, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    2. Diana N. Elshahawany & Eduardo A. Haddd, Michael L. Lahr, 2015. "The Potential Economic Impacts of the Proposed Development Corridor in Egypt: An Interregional CGE Approach," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_42, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    3. Haddad, Eduardo A. & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. & Porsse, Alexandre A. & Van Leeuwen, Eveline S. & Vieira, Renato S., 2015. "The underground economy: Tracking the higher-order economic impacts of the São Paulo Subway System," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 18-30.
    4. Eduardo Haddad & Michael Lahr & Dina Elshahawany & Moisés Vassallo, 2015. "Regional Analysis of Domestic Integration in Egypt," ERSA conference papers ersa15p159, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Dina N. Elshahawany & Eduardo A. Haddad & Michael L. Lahr, 2016. "Accessibility, Transportation Cost and Regional Growth: A Case Study for Egypt," Working Papers 1049, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2016.

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