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The Foreign Exchange Constraints to Economic Adjustment: The case of Iran

Author

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  • A. Sepehri
  • S. Moshiri
  • M. Doudongee

Abstract

While a great deal of work has been devoted to the assessment of the effects of structural adjustment programmes, little is known about the relative importance of external financing and its contribution to the success of these adjustment programmes. This paper examines this question, using Iran's recent experience with an orthodox structural adjustment with its limited access to medium- and long-term external financing. Using the annual data for 1963-94, a three-gap model of growth is formulated and estimated in which economic growth is constrained by domestic saving, foreign exchange and public sector resource availability. The resulting foreign exchange-gap equation demonstrates a sharp trade-off between investment (capacity generation) and the capacity utilization rate. The model is simulated over the period 1995-99 under three growth path scenarios. The size of the foreign exchange gap under these growth path scenarios illustrates quite vividly the centrality of the foreign exchange constraint to the achievement of a modest growth rate in the medium-term.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Sepehri & S. Moshiri & M. Doudongee, 2000. "The Foreign Exchange Constraints to Economic Adjustment: The case of Iran," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 235-251.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:235-251
    DOI: 10.1080/02692170050024769
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Karshenas, M., 1993. "Exchange Rate Unification, the Role of Markets and Planning in the Iranian Economic Reconstruction," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9313, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    7. Fielding, David, 1997. "Adjustment, trade policy and investment slumps: evidence from Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 121-137, February.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 1995. "Islamic Republic of Iran: Recent Economic Developments," IMF Staff Country Reports 1995/121, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Thilak Ranaweera, 2004. "Ghost of the financing gap: an overlooked aspect of the aid debate," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 637-652.
    3. Khemraj, Tarron & Langrin, R. Brian, 2009. "Dynamic interactions of bank assets in two foreign currency constrained economies," MPRA Paper 36620, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
    4. Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan & Tarron Khemraj, 2022. "Dominant Currency Shocks and Foreign Exchange Pressure in the Periphery," SCEPA working paper series. 2022-01, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.

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