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Asymmetric volatility spillovers between the U.K. regional worker flows and vacancies

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  • Deborah Gefang
  • Geraint Johnes

Abstract

This article investigates volatility spillovers between the U.K. regional job finding, job separation and vacancy rates. Employing a large Bayesian logistic smooth transition vector autoregression model, we find high volatility spillovers between the U.K. regional labour markets. Analyses of net spillovers show that, in general, shocks to job separation rates tend to spread into job finding and vacancy rates, while vacancy rates are usually at the receiving end of shocks transmitted from the job separations and job findings. To shed further light on the shock propagation mechanism, we also look into more detailed matters such as the differences in spillovers between regions within the same regime, and that of the same region but in different regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Deborah Gefang & Geraint Johnes, 2017. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between the U.K. regional worker flows and vacancies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(50), pages 5117-5133, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:50:p:5117-5133
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1299105
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    1. Park, Trevor & Casella, George, 2008. "The Bayesian Lasso," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 681-686, June.
    2. Gefang, Deborah, 2014. "Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso for VAR shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11.
    3. Burda, Michael C. & Profit, Stefan, 1996. "Matching across space: Evidence on mobility in the Czech Republic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 255-278, October.
    4. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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