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Exchange rate and foreign GDP elasticities of Swiss exports across sectors and destination countries

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  • Sandra Hanslin Grossmann
  • Sarah M. Lein
  • Caroline Schmidt

Abstract

This article uses a detailed breakdown of Swiss trade flows to identify how the impact of the two main determinants of Switzerland’s exports – foreign demand and the real exchange rate – varies across sectors and export destinations. Our main findings are that (i) both foreign demand and exchange rate elasticities vary substantially across both export sectors and export destinations. (ii) Foreign demand trends are more important for structural considerations than the exchange rate. This is due to the fact that exports of the two largest export sectors are relatively sensitive to long-run foreign demand developments while they are relatively insensitive to changes in the exchange rate. (iii) The sectoral structure of Switzerland’s exports has shifted towards goods that have a lower short-run demand elasticity and a higher long-run demand elasticity. Goods exports are thus less influenced by business cycle fluctuations while they benefit more from long-term growth trends. (iv) The export share of sectors with a relatively low exchange rate elasticity has increased. However, this result is mainly driven by the strong rise in exports of chemicals and pharmaceuticals as well as precision instruments and watches, which are also the two important sectors responsible for the Swiss trade surplus.

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  • Sandra Hanslin Grossmann & Sarah M. Lein & Caroline Schmidt, 2016. "Exchange rate and foreign GDP elasticities of Swiss exports across sectors and destination countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(57), pages 5546-5562, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:57:p:5546-5562
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1181828
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    1. Kartono, Agus & Solekha, Siti & Sumaryada, Tony & Irmansyah,, 2021. "Foreign currency exchange rate prediction using non-linear Schrödinger equations with economic fundamental parameters," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Tille, Cédric, 2017. "The Changing International linkages of Switzerland: An Overview," CEPR Discussion Papers 12176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Makram El‐Shagi & William C. Sawyer & Kiril Tochkov, 2022. "The income elasticity of import demand: A meta‐survey," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 18-41, February.
    4. Konstantin Büchel & Stefan Legge & Vincent Pochon & Philipp Wegmüller, 2020. "Swiss trade during the COVID-19 pandemic: an early appraisal," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Willem Thorbecke & Nimesh Salike, 2020. "Export Sophistication and Trade Elasticities," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 2(1), pages 7-26, April.
    6. Eliphas Ndou, 2022. "Exchange rate changes on export volumes in South Africa under the inflation targeting period," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-25, June.
    7. Marlene Amstad & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 2017. "Long-run effects of exchange rate appreciation: Another puzzle?," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 68(01), pages 63-82, December.
    8. Matthias Flückiger & Christian Rutzer & Rolf Weder, 2016. "Die Schweizer Wirtschaft zwischen Hammer und Amboss: Eine Analyse der "Franken-Schocks" 2010/11 und 2015," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(03), pages 95-133, December.
    9. Gloria Allione & Alberto Felettigh, 2021. "External demand and export performance: regression residuals during the Covid-19 pandemic," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 643, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Thorbecke, Willem & Salike, Nimesh & Chen, Chen, 2022. "The impact of exchange rate changes on the Japanese chemical industry," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Dario Fauceglia, 2020. "Exchange rate fluctuations and quality composition of exports: Evidence from Swiss product‐level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1592-1618, June.
    12. Brunhart, Andreas & Geiger, Martin, 2022. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks: Goods exports and the appreciation of the Swiss Franc in 2015," EconStor Preprints 266362, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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