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Military spending and economic growth in China: a regime-switching analysis

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  • F. Menla Ali
  • O. Dimitraki

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of military spending changes on economic growth in China over the period 1953 to 2010. Using two-state Markov-switching specifications, the results suggest that the relationship between military spending changes and economic growth is state dependent. Specifically, the results show that military spending changes affect the economic growth negatively during a slower growth-higher variance state, while positively within a faster growth-lower variance one. It is also demonstrated that military spending changes contain information about the growth transition probabilities. As a policy tool, the results indicate that increases in military spending can be detrimental to growth during slower growth-higher growth volatility periods.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Menla Ali & O. Dimitraki, 2014. "Military spending and economic growth in China: a regime-switching analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(28), pages 3408-3420, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:28:p:3408-3420
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.929626
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barry Naughton, 2007. "The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262640643, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Naceur Khraief & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Saleheen Khan, 2018. "Are Fluctuations in Military Spending Transitory or Permanent? International Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1198-1212.
    2. Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Does Military Spending Nonlinearly Affect Economic Growth in South Africa?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 474-487, June.
    3. Uk Heo & Min Ye, 2016. "Defense Spending and Economic Growth around the Globe: The Direct and Indirect Link," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 774-796, October.
    4. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Yi Chen & Feng-Li Lin & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Asymmetric Granger Causality between Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Top Six Defense Suppliers," Working Papers 201565, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Sampson Agyapong Atuahene & Kong Yusheng & Geoffrey Bentum-Micah & Evans Garti & Alexender Baah, 2020. "Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in China," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 10(2), pages 3-16.
    6. Chiwei Su & Yingying Xu & Hsu Ling Chang & Oana-Ramona Lobont & Zhixin Liu, 2020. "Dynamic Causalities between Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Rolling Granger Causality Test," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 565-582, July.
    7. Ben Youssef, Slim, 2021. "Symmetric and asymmetric relationships between renewable energy, oil imports, arms exports, military spending, and economic growth in China," MPRA Paper 111413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Tsai-Yuan Huang & Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu, 2017. "Defense–Growth Causality: Considerations of Regime-Switching and Time- and Country-Varying Effects," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 568-584, September.
    9. Shreesh Chary, 2023. "The nexus between arms imports, military expenditures and economic growth of the top arms importers in the world: a pooled mean group approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(4), pages 808-822, August.
    10. Tsung-pao Wu & Dian Fan & Tsangyao Chang, 2016. "The Relationship Between Globalization And Military Expenditures In G7 Countries: Evidence From A Panel Data Analysis," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(3), pages 285-302.
    11. Waqar Qureshi & Noor Pio Khan, 2017. "Revisiting the Relationship between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Pakistan," Global Social Sciences Review, Humanity Only, vol. 2(1), pages 18-46, June.
    12. Sotirios K. Bellos, 2017. "The Relationship between Military Expenditure and Certain Growth and Development Related Variables in Transition Economies: A Panel Data Analysis," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(5), pages 31-44, September.
    13. Isiaka Akande Raifu & Alarudeen Aminu, 2023. "The effect of military spending on economic growth in MENA: evidence from method of moments quantile regression," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    14. Stamegna, Marco & Bonaiuti, Chiara & Maranzano, Paolo & Pianta, Mario, 2024. "The economic impact of arms spending in Germany, Italy, and Spain," MPRA Paper 120608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Yi Chen & Feng-Li Lin & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Asymmetric causality between military expenditures and economic growth in top six defense spenders," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1193-1207, May.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Kumar Mahalik, Mantu & Khan, Saleheen, 2018. "Military Spending Response to Defense Shocks? International Evidence," MPRA Paper 87362, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jun 2018.
    17. Liming Zhao & Liang Zhao & Bing-Fu Chen, 2017. "The interrelationship between defence spending, public expenditures and economic growth: evidence from China," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 703-718, November.

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