The British gambler's fallacy
People facing choices under uncertainty, and gamblers in particular, are often subject to statistical fallacies. This paper explores the hypothesis that if lotto players were subject to the 'gambler's fallacy', predictable fluctuations in the number of jackpots would occur. Evidence, based on a Poisson regression model in which the number of winning bets is conditional on the history of draws, indicates that number selection in the UK is only marginally affected by the history of draws.
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Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 18 ()
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- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984.
"Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
- Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1982. "Pseudo maximum lilelihood methods : applications to poisson models," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8203, CEPREMAP.
- Charles T. Clotfelter & Philip J. Cook, 1991. "The "Gambler's Fallacy" in Lottery Play," NBER Working Papers 3769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
- Patrick Roger & Marie-Helene Broihanne, 2007. "Efficiency of Betting Markets and Rationality of Players: Evidence from the French 6/49 Lotto," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 645-662.
- Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279-279. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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