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Macroeconomic Determinants of Contingent Protection: The Case of the European Union

  • Bettina Becker
  • Martin Theuringer

    ()

Contingent Protection has grown to become an important trade restricting device. In the European Union, protection instruments like antidumping are used extensively. This paper analyses whether macroeconomic pressures may contribute to explain the variations in the intensity of antidumping protectionism in the EU. The empirical analysis uses count data models, applying various specification tests to derive the most appropriate specification. Our results suggest that the filing activity is inversely related to the macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, they confirm existing evidence for the US suggesting that domestic macroeconomic pressures are a more important determinant of contingent protection policy than external pressures.

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Paper provided by Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany in its series IWP Discussion Paper Series with number 02/2000.

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Date of creation: Sep 2000
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Handle: RePEc:kln:iwpdip:dp02/00
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  1. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1981. "Pseudo maximum likelihood methods : theory," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8129, CEPREMAP.
  2. Coughlin, Cletus C & Terza, Joseph V & Khalifah, Noor Aini, 1989. "The Determinants of Escape Clause Petitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 341-47, May.
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  4. Hylke Vandenbussche & Jozef Konings & Linda Springael, 1999. "Import Diversion under European Antidumping Policy," NBER Working Papers 7340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Prusa, Thomas J., 1992. "Why are so many antidumping petitions withdrawn?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 1-20, August.
  6. Berndt, Ernst R & Savin, N Eugene, 1977. "Conflict among Criteria for Testing Hypotheses in the Multivariate Linear Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1263-77, July.
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  8. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-20, May.
  9. Arvind Panagariya & Poonam Gupta, 1998. "Anti-dumping Duty versus Price Negotiations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(8), pages 1003-1019, November.
  10. Feinberg, Robert M, 1989. "Exchange Rates and "Unfair Trade."," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 704-07, November.
  11. Cameron, A. Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K., 1990. "Regression-based tests for overdispersion in the Poisson model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 347-364, December.
  12. Tharakan, P K M, 1995. "Political Economy and Contingent Protection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1550-64, November.
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