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Efficiency of Betting Markets and Rationality of Players: Evidence from the French 6/49 Lotto

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  • Patrick Roger
  • Marie-Helene Broihanne

Abstract

We analyse the existence of preferred numbers on the French Lotto market and prove that this market is not strongly efficient in the sense of Thaler & Ziemba (1988). The preference for low numbers is investigated by means of stochastic dominance tests. The specific features of the French Lotto game allow us to build a simple estimate of the probability distribution of numbers actually played. The results are compared with the (highly time-consuming) maximum likelihood estimator used by Farrell et al. (2000). It is shown that the two methods give very close results. Our conclusions stress the perspectives of this study in various domains.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Roger & Marie-Helene Broihanne, 2007. "Efficiency of Betting Markets and Rationality of Players: Evidence from the French 6/49 Lotto," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 645-662.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:34:y:2007:i:6:p:645-662 DOI: 10.1080/02664760701236889
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schraepler, Joerg-Peter & Wagner, Gert G., 2003. "Identification, Characteristics and Impact of Faked Interviews in Surveys: An Analysis by Means of Genuine Fakes in the Raw Data of SOEP," IZA Discussion Papers 969, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Humphreys, Brad & Perez, Levi, 2011. "Lottery Participants and Revenues: An International Survey of Economic Research on Lotteries," Working Papers 2011-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    2. George Papachristou, 2004. "The British gambler's fallacy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 2073-2077.
    3. Andrey Kudryavtsev & Gil Cohen & Shlomit Hon-Snir, 2013. "“Rational” or “Intuitive”: Are Behavioral Biases Correlated Across Stock Market Investors?," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw.
    4. Tong V. Wang & Rogier J. D. Potter van Loon & Martijn J. van den Assem & Dennie van Dolder, 2016. "Number preferences in lotteries," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, pages 243-259.

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