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The J-curve effect and US agricultural and industrial trade

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  • Khosrow Doroodian
  • Chulho Jung
  • Roy Boyd

Abstract

This paper examines the J-curve hypothesis for US agricultural and manufactured goods, using the Shiller lag model. The results support the J-curve effect for agricultural goods, but not for manufactured goods. These findings explain why many studies in the literature fail to support the J-curve phenomenon. There are two explanations for these findings: (1) the aggregation bias of data that combine both agricultural and manufactured goods and (2) the country under study is often an industrial nation like the US or Japan with a high proportion of manufactured goods in both exports and imports.

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  • Khosrow Doroodian & Chulho Jung & Roy Boyd, 1999. "The J-curve effect and US agricultural and industrial trade," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 687-695.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:31:y:1999:i:6:p:687-695
    DOI: 10.1080/000368499323904
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    2. Ka Ming Cheng & Hyeongwoo Kim & Henry Thompson, 2011. "The US Tourism Trade Balance and Exchange Rate Shock," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2011-12, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    3. Baek, Jungho, 2020. "An asymmetric approach to the oil prices-trade balance nexus: New evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and her 14 trading partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 199-209.
    4. Carl Mela & Praveen Kopalle, 2002. "The impact of collinearity on regression analysis: the asymmetric effect of negative and positive correlations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 667-677.
    5. Mehmet Yazici, 2008. "The Exchange Rate and the Trade Balances of Turkish Agriculture, Manufacturing and Mining," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 45-52, February.
    6. Houssem Eddine Chebbi & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2011. "Agricultural Trade Balance and Exchange Rate Depreciation: The Case of Tunisia," Working Papers 610, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 Jan 2011.
    7. Kafle, Kashi R. & Kennedy, P. Lynn, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Bilateral Agricultural Trade Flows: The Case of the United States and OECD Countries," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119736, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Cheng, Ka Ming & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Thompson, Henry, 2013. "The real exchange rate and the balance of trade in US tourism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 122-128.
    9. Thompson, Gary D. & Cepeda, Ricardo Cavazos, 2002. "Gauging The Recent Effects Of The North American Free Trade Agreement," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 33(1), pages 1-13, March.
    10. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "The J-curve Effect in Agricultural Commodity Trade: An Empirical Study of South East Asian Economies," MPRA Paper 106701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Cheng, Ka Ming, 2020. "Currency devaluation and trade balance: Evidence from the US services trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 20-37.
    12. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2009. "Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Bilateral Agricultural Trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(2), pages 187-203, June.
    13. Mehmet Yazici, 2010. "Is there a J-curve effect in Turkish services?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 167-172, January.
    14. Yazici, Mehmet & Qamarul Islam, M., 2012. "Exchange Rate and Turkish Agricultural Trade Balance with EU," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13.
    15. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Exchange Rate Changes," MPRA Paper 5721, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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