IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v8y2001i2p89-93.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identification of parametric policy options for rehabilitating a pay-as-you-go based pension system: an optimization analysis for Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Serdar Sayan
  • Arzdar Kiraci

Abstract

Publicly managed pension systems operating on the basis of pay-as-you-go (PAYG) schemes face financial difficulties worldwide. The expenditure-revenue balances of such a system are determined jointly by the selected configuration of system parameters, and interrelated developments in the labour market and demographic structure. In a country where pension coverage is compulsory, these developments occur completely beyond the control of pension system administrators implying that any imbalances that may arise over time can be corrected only by adjusting the existing configuration of contribution and replacement rates, and minimum retirement ages. It can be shown, however, that there are infinitely many configurations of these system parameters that could be used to maintain a selected intertemporal balance between the amounts of contributions collected from workers and pensions paid to the retirees. This paper describes an algorithm developed to identify all possible configurations compatible with this goal and illustrates its use with reference to the pension reform debate in Turkey, a country whose PAYG-based pension system already faces a severe financial crisis despite a relatively young workforce/population. The results indicate that for contribution and replacement rates to remain around their current values, the minimum retirement age must be increased substantially.

Suggested Citation

  • Serdar Sayan & Arzdar Kiraci, 2001. "Identification of parametric policy options for rehabilitating a pay-as-you-go based pension system: an optimization analysis for Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 89-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:8:y:2001:i:2:p:89-93
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850150204129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/13504850150204129&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13504850150204129?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sheetal K. Chand & Mr. Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 1996/013, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saime S KAYAM & Merih CELİKTOPUZ & Mehmet KORAY PARKIN, 2013. "Features That Influence The Exit Decision From The Private Pension System In Turkey," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 145-155.
    2. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    3. Godínez-Olivares, Humberto & Boado-Penas, María del Carmen & Haberman, Steven, 2016. "Optimal strategies for pay-as-you-go pension finance: A sustainability framework," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 117-126.
    4. Gumus, Erdal, 2005. "Benefit-Cost Analysis of Turkish Social Insurance Institute Gradual Privatization Proposal," MPRA Paper 42372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gunes Asik, 2018. "Impact of early retirement incentives on labor supply of young men and women : evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 20180002, UMR Développement et Sociétés, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement.
    6. Glenn P. Jenkins & Godwin O Olasehinde-Williams & Roya Amel, 2019. "Private Benefits, Fiscal Costs, and Economic Resource Costs of the Private Defined Contribution Pension Systems in Turkey," Development Discussion Papers 2019-02, JDI Executive Programs.
    7. Sayan, Serdar & Kiraci, Arzdar, 2001. "Parametric pension reform with higher retirement ages: A computational investigation of alternatives for a pay-as-you-go-based pension system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 951-966, June.
    8. Gumus, Erdal, 2008. "Türk Sosyal Güvenlik Sisteminin Değerlendirilmesi ve Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumlarının Finansal Geleceği [An Evaluation of Turkish Social Security Reform Process and Its Financial Future]," MPRA Paper 42160, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rydell, Ingrid, 2005. "Equity, Justice, Interdependence: Intergenerational Transfers and the Ageing Population," Arbetsrapport 2005:5, Institute for Futures Studies.
    2. Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    3. Guillaume Allègre & Thomas Melonio & Xavier Timbeau, 2012. "Dépenses publiques d'éducation et inégalités. Une perspective de cycle de vie," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 63(6), pages 1055-1079.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Marco Bassetto, 2009. "The Research Agenda: Marco Bassetto on the Quantitative Evaluation of Fiscal Policy Rules," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), April.
    6. Buiter, Willem H., 1996. "Aspects of Fiscal Performance in some Transition Economies under Fund-supported Programs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Hagist, Christian & Moog, Stefan & Vatter, Johannes, 2009. "Ehrbare Staaten? Die deutsche Generationenbilanz im internationalen Vergleich," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 107, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    8. Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Seuffert, Stefan, 2020. "Ehrbarer Staat? Wege und Irrwege der Rentenpolitik im Lichte der Generationenbilanz," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 148, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    9. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    10. Erling Steigum, Jr & Carl Gjersem & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting and Depletable Natural Resources: The Case of Norway," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 369-396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Xavier Chojnicki, 2013. "The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in France: A Generational Accounting Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 1065-1090, August.
    12. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
    13. Said Outlioua & Abdesselam Fazouane, 2023. "Which factors affect the sustainability of pension schemes?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 89-108, February.
    14. repec:pri:cepsud:74bradford is not listed on IDEAS
    15. David Coleman & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "The Economic Effects of Immigration into the United Kingdom," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(4), pages 579-624, December.
    16. repec:zbw:rwidps:0020 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Papageorgiou, Athanasios, 2018. "The Effect of Immigration on the Well-Being of Native Populations: Evidence from the United Kingdom," MPRA Paper 93045, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. repec:rnp:ppaper:2309 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Stefan Moog & Christoph Müller, 2011. "Zur Erhöhung der Regelaltersgrenze in Deutschland: eine internationale Perspektive," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(2), pages 33-51.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Feist, Karen & Krimmer, Pascal & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2001. "Intergenerative Effekte einer lebenszyklusorientierten Einkommensteuerreform: Die Einfachsteuer des Heidelberger Steuerkreises," Discussion Papers 98, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    22. Joachim Winter, 2002. "The impact of pension reforms and demography on stock markets," MEA discussion paper series 02021, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    23. Frits Bos & Coen Teulings, 2012. "The world’s oldest fiscal watchdog: CPB’s analyses foster consensus on economic policy," CPB Discussion Paper 207, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    24. Fullerton, Don & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2002. "Tax incidence," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 26, pages 1787-1872, Elsevier.
    25. Marek Louzek, 2008. "Pension system reform in Central and Eastern Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 119-131.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:8:y:2001:i:2:p:89-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.