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Identification of parametric policy options for rehabilitating a pay-as-you-go based pension system: an optimization analysis for Turkey

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  • Serdar Sayan
  • Arzdar Kiraci

Abstract

Publicly managed pension systems operating on the basis of pay-as-you-go (PAYG) schemes face financial difficulties worldwide. The expenditure-revenue balances of such a system are determined jointly by the selected configuration of system parameters, and interrelated developments in the labour market and demographic structure. In a country where pension coverage is compulsory, these developments occur completely beyond the control of pension system administrators implying that any imbalances that may arise over time can be corrected only by adjusting the existing configuration of contribution and replacement rates, and minimum retirement ages. It can be shown, however, that there are infinitely many configurations of these system parameters that could be used to maintain a selected intertemporal balance between the amounts of contributions collected from workers and pensions paid to the retirees. This paper describes an algorithm developed to identify all possible configurations compatible with this goal and illustrates its use with reference to the pension reform debate in Turkey, a country whose PAYG-based pension system already faces a severe financial crisis despite a relatively young workforce/population. The results indicate that for contribution and replacement rates to remain around their current values, the minimum retirement age must be increased substantially.

Suggested Citation

  • Serdar Sayan & Arzdar Kiraci, 2001. "Identification of parametric policy options for rehabilitating a pay-as-you-go based pension system: an optimization analysis for Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 89-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:8:y:2001:i:2:p:89-93
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850150204129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sheetal K. Chand & Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    2. Kayam, Saime S. & Parkın, Mehmet Koray & Çeliktopuz, Merih, 2013. "Features that influence the exit decision from the private pension system in Turkey," MPRA Paper 50933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Godínez-Olivares, Humberto & Boado-Penas, María del Carmen & Haberman, Steven, 2016. "Optimal strategies for pay-as-you-go pension finance: A sustainability framework," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 117-126.
    4. Gumus, Erdal, 2005. "Benefit-Cost Analysis of Turkish Social Insurance Institute Gradual Privatization Proposal," MPRA Paper 42372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sayan, Serdar & Kiraci, Arzdar, 2001. "Parametric pension reform with higher retirement ages: A computational investigation of alternatives for a pay-as-you-go-based pension system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 951-966, June.
    6. Gumus, Erdal, 2008. "Türk Sosyal Güvenlik Sisteminin Değerlendirilmesi ve Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumlarının Finansal Geleceği
      [An Evaluation of Turkish Social Security Reform Process and Its Financial Future]      ," MPRA Paper 42160, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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