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Potential assessment of the support vector regression technique in rainfall forecasting

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  • Wei-Chiang Hong
  • Ping-Feng Pai

Abstract

Forecasting and monitoring of rainfall values are increasingly important for decreasing economic loss caused by flash floods. Based on statistical learning theory, support vector regression (SVR) has been used to deal with forecasting problems. Performing structural risk minimization rather than minimizing the training errors, SVR algorithms have better generalization ability than the conventional artificial neural networks. The objective of this investigation is to examine the feasibility and applicability of SVR in forecasting volumes of rainfall during typhoon seasons. In addition, Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithms are employed to choose parameters of the SVR model. Subsequently, rainfall values during typhoon periods in Taiwan's Wu–Tu watershed are used to demonstrate the forecasting performance of the proposed model. The simulation results show that the proposed SVRSA model is a promising alternative in forecasting amounts of rainfall during typhoon seasons. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Wei-Chiang Hong & Ping-Feng Pai, 2007. "Potential assessment of the support vector regression technique in rainfall forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(2), pages 495-513, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:21:y:2007:i:2:p:495-513
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-006-9026-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Krishna Singh & Mahesh Pal & V. Singh, 2010. "Estimation of Mean Annual Flood in Indian Catchments Using Backpropagation Neural Network and M5 Model Tree," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(10), pages 2007-2019, August.
    2. Roohollah Noori & Hossien Sheikhian & Farhad Hooshyaripor & Ali Naghikhani & Jan Franklin Adamowski & Behzad Ghiasi, 2017. "Granular Computing for Prediction of Scour Below Spillways," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 313-326, January.
    3. Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2011. "Electric load forecasting by seasonal recurrent SVR (support vector regression) with chaotic artificial bee colony algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5568-5578.
    4. Andres Ticlavilca & Mac McKee, 2011. "Multivariate Bayesian Regression Approach to Forecast Releases from a System of Multiple Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 523-543, January.
    5. Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2010. "Application of chaotic ant swarm optimization in electric load forecasting," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5830-5839, October.
    6. Wei-Chiang Hong & Yucheng Dong & Chien-Yuan Lai & Li-Yueh Chen & Shih-Yung Wei, 2011. "SVR with Hybrid Chaotic Immune Algorithm for Seasonal Load Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(6), pages 1-18, June.
    7. Fereshteh Modaresi & Shahab Araghinejad, 2014. "A Comparative Assessment of Support Vector Machines, Probabilistic Neural Networks, and K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithms for Water Quality Classification," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4095-4111, September.
    8. Manish Goyal & C. Ojha, 2011. "Estimation of Scour Downstream of a Ski-Jump Bucket Using Support Vector and M5 Model Tree," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(9), pages 2177-2195, July.

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