IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sjobre/v75y2023i2d10.1007_s41471-023-00160-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation and Valuation Practice: German Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Schüler

    (Universität der Bundeswehr München)

  • Sebastian Wünsche

    (Universität der Bundeswehr München)

Abstract

The objective of our paper is to analyze, how valuation practice deals with inflation especially for the terminal value, and how company value is influenced by assumptions set by practitioners. For that reason, we examine how vulnerable companies could be regarding struggles to pass on inflationary effects to their customers. We analyze the inflation rates assumed for the steady-state (terminal value) by comparing them to different estimators for the inflation rate expected at the valuation date (Survey of Professional Forecasters, inflation rates derived by comparing real and nominal rate of returns, inflation swaps). We quantify the implications of using different inflation rates for future cash flow development, terminal value and the company value at the valuation date, and compare nominal reported values with company values in a (hypothetical) world without inflation. Our sample consists of 263 valuation reports written by German auditors with valuation dates between 2000 to 2021. Most of the reports aim at determining the price per share to compensate minority shareholders during a squeeze-out. Our results question inter alia the preference for a constant company specific inflation rate of around 1% on average, and we quantify a number of value effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Schüler & Sebastian Wünsche, 2023. "Inflation and Valuation Practice: German Evidence," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 75(2), pages 239-266, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:75:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s41471-023-00160-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s41471-023-00160-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41471-023-00160-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41471-023-00160-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    2. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation anchoring in the euro area," Discussion Papers 04/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Fisher, Irving, 1907. "The Rate of Interest," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number fisher1907.
    4. Mukhlynina, Lilia & Nyborg, Kjell G., 2020. "The Choice of Valuation Techniques in Practice: Education Versus Profession," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 201-265, June.
    5. Gunther Friedl & Bernhard Schwetzler, 2011. "Terminal Value, Accounting Numbers, and Inflation," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 23(2), pages 104-112, June.
    6. Speck, Christian, 2016. "Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145697, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2018. "Tail Co-movement in Inflation Expectations as an Indicator of Anchoring," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 35-71, January.
    2. Ambler, Steve & Rumler, Fabio, 2019. "The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy announcements in the euro area: An event and econometric study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 48-61.
    3. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.
    4. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    5. Siena Daniele, & Zago Riccardo., 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    6. Jonas Dovern & Geoff Kenny, 2020. "Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 309-347, October.
    7. Kenny, Geoff & Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
    8. O. Grishchenko & S. Mouabbi & J.-P. Renne, 2017. "The Joint Dynamics of U.S. and Euro-area Inflation Rates: Expectations and Time-varying Uncertainty," Working papers 622, Banque de France.
    9. Christian Johnson & George G Kaufman, 2007. "Un banco, con cualquier otro nombre…," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 185-199, Octubre-d.
    10. Irving Fisher Committee, 2003. "Abstracts of papers to be presented at the 54th ISI Session, Berlin, August 2003," IFC Bulletins, Bank for International Settlements, number 15, July.
    11. Navarrete, Eduardo, 2012. "Modeling optimal pine stands harvest under stochastic wood stock and price in Chile," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 54-59.
    12. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Hasan Olgun, 2007. "Inflation uncertainty and interest rates: is the Fisher relation universal?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 53-68.
    13. Mabid Ali Al-Jarhi, 2020. "Reforming Islamic Finance إصلاح المالية الإسلامية," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 33(2), pages 101-107, July.
    14. Yunhao Chen & Xiaoquan Jiang & Bong-Soo Lee, 2015. "Long-Term Evidence on the Effect of Aggregate Earnings on Prices," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 323-351, June.
    15. James Tobin, 2005. "Fisher's Introductory Text," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 201-205, January.
    16. Olivier Rousse, 2008. "On the bias of yield-based capital budgeting methods," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(9), pages 1-8.
    17. Lee, Shun-Chung, 2011. "Using real option analysis for highly uncertain technology investments: The case of wind energy technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4443-4450.
    18. Mitra, Tapan & Sorger, Gerhard, 2013. "On Ramseyʼs conjecture," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(5), pages 1953-1976.
    19. Robert W. Dimand, 2012. "The Roots of the Present are in the Past: The Relation of Postwar Developments in Macroeconomics to Interwar Business Cycle and Monetary Theory," Chapters, in: Thomas Cate (ed.), Keynes’s General Theory, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2013. "Alternative inflation hedging strategies for ALM," MPRA Paper 43755, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:75:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s41471-023-00160-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.