IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/qualqt/v50y2016i2p653-671.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Recessions, expectations, and labor supply dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Maurizio Bovi
  • Massimo Mancini

Abstract

We examine how expectations on macroeconomic evolutions affect as many as twelve different labor market status transitions in bad economic times. Such a refined analysis of job search frequencies highlights intriguing findings. In bad economic times, e.g. to make up for the loss in family income, not-working agents would like to work. On the other hand, individuals are somewhat discouraged by the deteriorated expectations and they exert only a limited search effort. This latter turns out to be insufficient to find work in poor labor markets. All in all, the evidence pins down the widespread presence of “timid” responses, depicting a hybrid picture that hardly can be related to one single theoretical approach. Specifically, our findings suggest refining the standard dichotomic setting behind the discouraged worker and added worker literature. Results are based on a battery of multinomial logit models and controlled for several individual-level and aggregate variables. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Maurizio Bovi & Massimo Mancini, 2016. "Recessions, expectations, and labor supply dynamics," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 653-671, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:50:y:2016:i:2:p:653-671
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-015-0169-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11135-015-0169-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11135-015-0169-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h18ghk9 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2000. "Adapting to Circumstances (The Evolution of Work, School,and Living Arrangements among North American Youth)," NBER Chapters, in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 171-214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    4. James W. Moser, 1986. "Labor Market Transitions: Cyclic, Trend, and Seasonal Effects for Prime-Age Men," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 39(2), pages 251-263, January.
    5. Alfonso ARPAIA & Nicola CURCI, "undated". "EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession," Working Papers wp2010-6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    6. Pries, Michael & Rogerson, Richard, 2009. "Search frictions and labor market participation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 568-587, July.
    7. Colm Harmon; & Ian Walker, 1995. "Estimates of Economic Return to Schooling in the UK," Economics Department Working Paper Series n540195, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    8. Melvin Stephens, 2002. "Worker Displacement and the Added Worker Effect," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(3), pages 504-537, July.
    9. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 1997. "Adapting to Circumstances: The Evolution of Work, School, and Living Arrangements Among North American Youth," Working Papers 765, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    10. Jesse Rothstein, 2012. "The Labor Market Four Years into the Crisis: Assessing Structural Explanations," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 65(3), pages 467-500, July.
    11. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    12. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    13. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h18ghk9 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Harmon, Colm & Walker, Ian, 1995. "Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling for the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1278-1286, December.
    15. repec:bla:econom:v:58:y:1991:i:230:p:173-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jacob Mincer, 1962. "Labor Force Participation of Married Women: A Study of Labor Supply," NBER Chapters, in: Aspects of Labor Economics, pages 63-105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. McKenzie, David J., 2003. "How do Households Cope with Aggregate Shocks? Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1179-1199, July.
    18. Miki Kohara, 2010. "The response of Japanese wives’ labor supply to husbands’ job loss," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1133-1149, September.
    19. Tamás Bartus, 2005. "Estimation of marginal effects using margeff," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(3), pages 309-329, September.
    20. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, April.
    21. repec:bla:econom:v:47:y:1980:i:185:p:51-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Anna Manzoni & Ruud Luijkx & Ruud Muffels, 2011. "Explaining differences in labour market transitions between panel and life-course data in West-Germany," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 241-261, February.
    23. Congregado, Emilio & Golpe, Antonio A. & van Stel, André, 2011. "Exploring the big jump in the Spanish unemployment rate: Evidence on an 'added-worker' effect," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1099-1105, May.
    24. Jonathan Gruber & Julie Berry Cullen, 1996. "Spousal Labor Supply as Insurance: Does Unemployment Insurance Crowd Outthe Added Worker Effect?," NBER Working Papers 5608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Spletzer, James R, 1997. "Reexamining the Added Worker Effect," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 417-427, April.
    26. Beth J. Soldo & Martha S. Hill, 1995. "Family Structure and Transfer Measures in the Health and Retirement Study: Background and Overview," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30, pages 108-137.
    27. McFadden, Daniel, 1999. "Rationality for Economists?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 73-105, December.
    28. Tim Maloney, 1987. "Employment Constraints and the Labor Supply of Married Women: A Reexamination of the Added Worker Effect," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(1), pages 51-61.
    29. Sonia Bhalotra & Marcela Umaña-Aponte, 2010. "The Dynamics of Women’s Labour Supply in Developing Countries," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 10/235, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    30. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    31. Lundberg, Shelly, 1985. "The Added Worker Effect," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 11-37, January.
    32. Don D. Humphrey, 1940. "Alleged "Additional Workers" in the Measurement of Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 412-412.
    33. Richard T. Curtin, 2003. "Unemployment Expectations: The Impact of Private Information on Income Uncertainty," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 49(4), pages 539-554, December.
    34. Chiara Mussida & Carlo Lucarelli, 2014. "Dynamics and Performance of the Italian Labour Market," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 33-54.
    35. Harmon, Harmon & Ian Walker, 1995. "Estimates of the economic return to schooling for the UK," IFS Working Papers W95/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    36. James J. Heckman & Thomas MaCurdy, 1982. "Corrigendum on A Life Cycle Model of Female Labour Supply," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(4), pages 659-660.
    37. W. S. Woytinsky, 1940. "Additional Workers on the Labor Market in Depressions: A Reply to Mr. Humphrey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(5), pages 735-735.
    38. John Humphrey, 1996. "Responses to recession and restructuring: Employment trends in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, 1979-87," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 40-62.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhalotra, Sonia R. & Umana-Aponte, Marcela, 2010. "The Dynamics of Women's Labour Supply in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 4879, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Umaña-Aponte, Marcela & Bhalotra, Sonia R., 2012. "Women's Labour Supply and Household Insurance in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 066, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Marcela Umaña-Aponte & Sonia Bhalotra, 2012. "Women's Labour Supply and Household Insurance in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-066, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ayhan, Sinem H., 2015. "Evidence of Added Worker Effect from the 2008 Economic Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 8937, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Ayhan, Sinem H., 2014. "How Do Married Women Respond When Their Husbands Lose Their Jobs? Evidence from Turkey During the Recent Crisis," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100387, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Matías Ciaschi, 2020. "Job loss and household labor supply adjustments in developing countries: Evidence from Argentina," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0271, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    8. Julia Bredtmann & Sebastian Otten & Christian Rulff, 2014. "Husband’s Unemployment and Wife’s Labor Supply – The Added Worker Effect across Europe," Economics Working Papers 2014-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Doreen Triebe, 2015. "The Added Worker Effect Differentiated by Gender and Partnership Status: Evidence from Involuntary Job Loss," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 740, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    10. Fadlon, Itzik & Nielsen, Torben Heien, 2019. "Household labor supply and the gains from social insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 18-28.
    11. Martha Starr, 2014. "Gender, added-worker effects, and the 2007–2009 recession: Looking within the household," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 209-235, June.
    12. Julio Guzman, 2014. "Social Protection and Private Coping Strategies During Recessions: Evidence from Chile," Working Papers wp_041, Adolfo Ibáñez University, School of Government.
    13. Giannakopoulos, Nicholas, 2015. "The added worker effect of married women in Greece during the Great Depression," MPRA Paper 66298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Melvin Stephens, 2002. "Worker Displacement and the Added Worker Effect," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(3), pages 504-537, July.
    15. Ángel L. Martín‐Román & Jaime Cuéllar‐Martín & Alfonso Moral, 2020. "Labor supply and the business cycle: The “bandwagon worker effect”," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(6), pages 1607-1642, December.
    16. Lee, Siha, 2020. "Household responses to disability shocks: Spousal labor supply, caregiving, and disability insurance," CLEF Working Paper Series 21, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    17. Siha Lee, 2023. "Spousal Labor Supply, Caregiving, and the Value of Disability Insurance," Department of Economics Working Papers 2020-08, McMaster University.
    18. Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2022. "Beyond the added-worker and the discouraged-worker effects: the entitled-worker effect," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    19. Lina Cardona‐Sosa & Luz Adriana Flórez & Leonardo Fabio Morales & Banco de la República, 2018. "How does the Household Labour Supply Respond to the Unemployment of the Household Head?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 32(4), pages 174-212, December.
    20. Sinem H. Ayhan, 2018. "Married women’s added worker effect during the 2008 economic crisis—The case of Turkey," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 767-790, September.
    21. Cunningham, Wendy V., 2001. "Breadwinner or caregiver? - how household role affectslabor choices in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2743, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations; Labor supply dynamics; Survey data ; Job search; D84; J21; J64;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:50:y:2016:i:2:p:653-671. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.