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Diffusion and spatial equilibrium of a social norm: voting participation in the United States, 1920–2008

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  • Stephen Coleman

Abstract

Social conformity can spread social norms and behaviors through a society. This research examines such a process geographically and over time for voting, which is strongly influenced by the norm that citizens should vote. A mathematical model for the spread of voting participation under the influence of social conformity is developed based on the diffusion equation, and predictions are tested with spatial analysis of state-level voter turnout in American presidential elections from 1920 to 2008. Results show that voter turnout has converged to a stable equilibrium in its geographical distribution across the states—but it is an equilibrium that results in persistent differences at the state level. Results are compared to individual-level and agent-based models. The model may be applied to other types of social diffusion that depend on specific geographical location. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Stephen Coleman, 2014. "Diffusion and spatial equilibrium of a social norm: voting participation in the United States, 1920–2008," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1769-1783, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:48:y:2014:i:3:p:1769-1783
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-013-9873-x
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    1. Cho, Wendy K Tam & Rudolph, Thomas J, 2008. "Emanating Political Participation: Untangling the Spatial Structure Behind Participation," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 273-289, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social norm; Voter turnout; Social conformity; Spatial model; Equilibrium; Diffusion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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