IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jqecon/v16y2018i2d10.1007_s40953-017-0080-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electoral Cycles and Project Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Saibal Ghosh

    () (Centre for Advanced Financial Research and Learning)

Abstract

Abstract Using a novel dataset on announced project-level investments, we examine the determination of project outcomes and the role of elections. Using India as a case study, the findings suggest that projects announced by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) exhibit a lower probability of completion. Furthermore, we show that projects announced by SOEs have a higher probability of being abandoned. Our results are consistent with the political view of government ownership where elected representatives make investment promises that are subsequently reneged.

Suggested Citation

  • Saibal Ghosh, 2018. "Electoral Cycles and Project Outcomes," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 527-552, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:16:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s40953-017-0080-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s40953-017-0080-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40953-017-0080-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hrv:faseco:33077889 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Khemani, Stuti, 2007. "Does delegation of fiscal policy to an independent agency make a difference? Evidence from intergovernmental transfers in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 464-484, March.
    3. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    4. Krueger, Anne O, 1990. "Government Failures in Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 9-23, Summer.
    5. Sapienza, Paola, 2004. "The effects of government ownership on bank lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 357-384, May.
    6. Fan, Joseph P.H. & Wong, T.J. & Zhang, Tianyu, 2007. "Politically connected CEOs, corporate governance, and Post-IPO performance of China's newly partially privatized firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 330-357, May.
    7. Shawn Cole, 2009. "Fixing Market Failures or Fixing Elections? Agricultural Credit in India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 219-250, January.
    8. repec:hrv:faseco:30747191 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    10. Kole, Stacey R & Mulherin, J Harold, 1997. "The Government as a Shareholder: A Case from the United States," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-22, April.
    11. Firth, Michael & Lin, Chen & Wong, Sonia M.L., 2008. "Leverage and investment under a state-owned bank lending environment: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 642-653, December.
    12. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2010. "Parliamentary election cycles and the Turkish banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2709-2719, November.
    13. Fazzari, Steven M & Athey, Michael J, 1987. "Asymmetric Information, Financing Constraints, and Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 481-487, August.
    14. Leuz, Christian & Oberholzer-Gee, Felix, 2006. "Political relationships, global financing, and corporate transparency: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 411-439, August.
    15. Paul H. Malatesta & Kathryn L. DeWenter, 2001. "State-Owned and Privately Owned Firms: An Empirical Analysis of Profitability, Leverage, and Labor Intensity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 320-334, March.
    16. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2010. "The Political Economy of the US Mortgage Default Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1967-1998, December.
    17. Craig O. Brown & I. Serdar Dinç, 2005. "The Politics of Bank Failures: Evidence from Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(4), pages 1413-1444.
    18. Andrei Shleifer, 1998. "State versus Private Ownership," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 133-150, Fall.
    19. Eitan Goldman & Jörg Rocholl & Jongil So, 2009. "Do Politically Connected Boards Affect Firm Value?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2331-2360, June.
    20. Blackwell, David W. & Marr, M. Wayne & Spivey, Michael F., 1990. "Plant-closing decisions and the market value of the firm," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 277-288, August.
    21. Micco, Alejandro & Panizza, Ugo & Yanez, Monica, 2007. "Bank ownership and performance. Does politics matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 219-241, January.
    22. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 1999. "Corporate Ownership Around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 471-517, April.
    23. I. Serdar Dinc & Nandini Gupta, 2011. "The Decision to Privatize: Finance and Politics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 241-269, February.
    24. Rafael La porta & Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2002. "Investor Protection and Corporate Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1147-1170, June.
    25. Sandip Sukhtankar, 2012. "Sweetening the Deal? Political Connections and Sugar Mills in India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 43-63, July.
    26. Ghosh, Saibal, 2011. "Price jitters: Do markets punish political stocks?," MPRA Paper 33170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    28. Sangeetha Gunasekar & Jayati Sarkar, 2014. "Does autonomy matter in state owned enterprises? Evidence from performance contracts in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2014-034, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    29. Khemani, Stuti, 2004. "Political cycles in a developing economy: effect of elections in the Indian States," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 125-154, February.
    30. Dinc, I. Serdar, 2005. "Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 453-479, August.
    31. Matías Braun & Claudio Raddatz, 2010. "Banking on Politics: When Former High-ranking Politicians Become Bank Directors," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(2), pages 234-279, June.
    32. Boycko, Maxim & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1996. "A Theory of Privatisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 309-319, March.
    33. John Vickers & George Yarrow, 1991. "Economic Perspectives on Privatization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 111-132, Spring.
    34. Barth, James R. & Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Bank regulation and supervision: what works best?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 205-248, April.
    35. repec:hrv:faseco:30747162 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. James R. Barth & Gerard Caprio Jr. & Ross Levine, 2001. "Banking Systems around the Globe: Do Regulation and Ownership Affect Performance and Stability?," NBER Chapters,in: Prudential Supervision: What Works and What Doesn't, pages 31-96 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Masami Imai, 2009. "Political Influence and Declarations of Bank Insolvency in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 131-158, February.
    38. Patrick Van Roy, 2008. "Capital Requirements and Bank Behaviour in the Early 1990: Cross-Country Evidence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 29-60, September.
    39. McConnell, John J. & Muscarella, Chris J., 1985. "Corporate capital expenditure decisions and the market value of the firm," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 399-422, September.
    40. Laeven, Luc, 2001. "Insider Lending and Bank Ownership: The Case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 207-229, June.
    41. Johnson, Simon & Mitton, Todd, 2003. "Cronyism and capital controls: evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-382, February.
    42. Mara Faccio, 2006. "Politically Connected Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 369-386, March.
    43. Daniel Carvalho, 2014. "The Real Effects of Government-Owned Banks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 577-609, April.
    44. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1994. "Politicians and Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(4), pages 995-1025.
    45. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2005. "Do Lenders Favor Politically Connected Firms? Rent Provision in an Emerging Financial Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(4), pages 1371-1411.
    46. Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Project; Abandoned; State-owned; Election; India;

    JEL classification:

    • G - Financial Economics
    • G - Financial Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:16:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s40953-017-0080-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.