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All probabilities are equal, but some probabilities are more equal than others

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Listed:
  • Christina Letsou

    (Boston College)

  • Shlomo Naeh

    (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

  • Uzi Segal

    (Boston College)

Abstract

There are several procedures for selecting people at random. Modern and ancient stories as well as some experiments suggest that individuals may not view all such lotteries as “fair.” In this paper, we compare alternative procedures and show conditions under which some procedures are preferred to others. These procedures give all individuals an equal chance of being selected, but have different structures. We analyze these procedures as multi-stage lotteries. In line with previous literature, our analysis is based on the observation that multi-stage lotteries are not considered indifferent to their probabilistic one-stage representations.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina Letsou & Shlomo Naeh & Uzi Segal, 2022. "All probabilities are equal, but some probabilities are more equal than others," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(2), pages 423-445, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:74:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s00199-022-01427-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-022-01427-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoram Halevy & Emre Ozdenoren, 2022. "Uncertainty and compound lotteries: calibration," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(2), pages 373-395, September.
    2. Jianjun Miao, 2022. "Introduction to the special issue in honor of Larry Epstein," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(2), pages 329-333, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fair lotteries; Two-stage lotteries; Reduction axiom; PORU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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