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Is there a plausible theory for decision under risk? A dual calibration critique

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  • James Cox
  • Vjollca Sadiraj
  • Bodo Vogt
  • Utteeyo Dasgupta

Abstract

Can any prominent theory of decision under risk rationalize both small-stakes risk aversion and large-stakes risk aversion? Do some prominent theories fail to rationalize patterns of same-stakes risk aversion? How do reference payoffs enter in the answer to these questions? What would be the characteristics of a theory of decision under risk that would be immune to calibration critique? We offer a theoretical duality analysis that addresses these questions. We report dual propositions and corollaries that calibrate the implications of nonlinear transformation of probabilities or payoffs (or both). We also report several experiments that provide data on the empirical relevance of the two types of calibration patterns. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • James Cox & Vjollca Sadiraj & Bodo Vogt & Utteeyo Dasgupta, 2013. "Is there a plausible theory for decision under risk? A dual calibration critique," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(2), pages 305-333, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:54:y:2013:i:2:p:305-333
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-012-0712-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Mel Win Khaw & Ziang Li & Michael Woodford, 2017. "Risk Aversion as a Perceptual Bias," NBER Working Papers 23294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Utteeyo Dasgupta & Subha Mani & Smriti Sharma & Saurabh Singhal, 2016. "Eliciting risk preferences: Firefighting in the field," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-47, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Vjollca Sadiraj, 2014. "Probabilistic risk attitudes and local risk aversion: a paradox," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 77(4), pages 443-454, December.
    4. Minqiang Li, 2014. "On Aumann and Serrano’s economic index of risk," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(2), pages 415-437, February.
    5. Stefan A. Lipman & Arthur E. Attema, 2019. "Rabin's paradox for health outcomes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 1064-1071, August.
    6. Siebert, Jan, 2020. "Are the poor more impatient than the rich? Experimental evidence on the effect of (lab) wealth on intertemporal preferences," Ruhr Economic Papers 845, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Jung, SeEun & Choe, Chung & Oaxaca, Ronald L., 2018. "Gender wage gaps and risky vs. secure employment: An experimental analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 112-121.
    8. Han Bleichrodt & Jason N. Doctor & Yu Gao & Chen Li & Daniella Meeker & Peter P. Wakker, 2019. "Resolving Rabin’s paradox," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 239-260, December.
    9. Harrison, Glenn W. & Lau, Morten I. & Ross, Don & Swarthout, J. Todd, 2017. "Small stakes risk aversion in the laboratory: A reconsideration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 24-28.
    10. Dasgupta, Utteeyo & Mani, Subha & Sharma, Smriti & Singhal, Saurabh, 2016. "Eliciting Risk Preferences: Firefighting in the Field," IZA Discussion Papers 9765, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Schosser, Stephan & Trarbach, Judith N. & Vogt, Bodo, 2016. "How does the perception of pain determine the selection between different treatments?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 131(PB), pages 174-182.
    12. Fakir, Adnan M.S., 2021. "Schooling and small stakes risk aversion: Insights from a rural-poor community," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    13. Mel Win Khaw & Ziang Li & Michael Woodford, 2021. "Cognitive Imprecision and Small-Stakes Risk Aversion [Linear Mapping of Numbers onto Space Requires Attention]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(4), pages 1979-2013.
    14. Steffen Andersen & James C. Cox & Glenn W. Harrison & Morten Lau & Elisabet E. Rutstroem & Vjollca Sadiraj, 2011. "Asset Integration and Attitudes to Risk: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2011_10, Durham University Business School.
    15. Zambrano, Eduardo, 2020. "Risk attitudes over small and large stakes recalibrated," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    16. Kelvin Balcombe & Iain Fraser, 2015. "Parametric preference functionals under risk in the gain domain: A Bayesian analysis," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 161-187, April.
    17. Aurelian DIACONU & Doina AVRAM, 2017. "General Aspects of Risk and Uncertainty in Making Financial – Economic Decisions," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 40-50, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk aversion; Calibration; Duality; Reference dependence; Experiments; C91; D81;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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