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Alpha-CIR model with branching processes in sovereign interest rate modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Ying Jiao

    (Université Claude Bernard-Lyon 1
    Peking University)

  • Chunhua Ma

    (Nankai University)

  • Simone Scotti

    (Université Paris Diderot-Paris 7)

Abstract

We introduce a class of interest rate models, called the α $\alpha$ -CIR model, which is a natural extension of the standard CIR model by adding a jump part driven by α $\alpha$ -stable Lévy processes with index α ∈ ( 1 , 2 ] $\alpha\in(1,2]$ . We deduce an explicit expression for the bond price by using the fact that the model belongs to the family of CBI and affine processes, and analyze the bond price and bond yield behaviors. The α $\alpha$ -CIR model allows us to describe in a unified and parsimonious way several recent observations on the sovereign bond market such as the persistency of low interest rates together with the presence of large jumps. Finally, we provide a thorough analysis of the jumps, and in particular the large jumps.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Jiao & Chunhua Ma & Simone Scotti, 2017. "Alpha-CIR model with branching processes in sovereign interest rate modeling," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 789-813, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:21:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s00780-017-0333-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-017-0333-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Bondi & Sergio Pulido & Simone Scotti, 2022. "The rough Hawkes Heston stochastic volatility model," Working Papers hal-03827332, HAL.
    2. Fontana, Claudio & Gnoatto, Alessandro & Szulda, Guillaume, 2023. "CBI-time-changed Lévy processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 323-349.
    3. Jianhai Bao & Jian Wang, 2023. "Coupling methods and exponential ergodicity for two‐factor affine processes," Mathematische Nachrichten, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 296(5), pages 1716-1736, May.
    4. Riccardo Brignone & Carlo Sgarra, 2020. "Asian options pricing in Hawkes-type jump-diffusion models," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 101-119, March.
    5. repec:uts:finphd:41 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Micha{l} Barski & Rafa{l} {L}ochowski, 2024. "Affine term structure models driven by independent L\'evy processes," Papers 2402.07503, arXiv.org.
    7. Claudio Fontana & Alessandro Gnoatto & Guillaume Szulda, 2021. "CBI-time-changed Lévy processes for multi-currency modeling," Working Papers 14/2021, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    8. Frikha, Noufel & Li, Libo, 2021. "Well-posedness and approximation of some one-dimensional Lévy-driven non-linear SDEs," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 76-107.
    9. Ingemar Kaj & Mine Caglar, 2017. "A buffer Hawkes process for limit order books," Papers 1710.03506, arXiv.org.
    10. Aur'elien Alfonsi & Guillaume Szulda, 2024. "On non-negative solutions of stochastic Volterra equations with jumps and non-Lipschitz coefficients," Papers 2402.19203, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    11. Kensuke Kato & Nobuhiro Nakamura, 2024. "PDE-Based Bayesian Inference of CEV Dynamics for Credit Risk in Stock Prices," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(2), pages 389-421, June.
    12. Mesias Alfeus, 2019. "Stochastic Modelling of New Phenomena in Financial Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2019, January-A.
    13. Li, Libo & Taguchi, Dai, 2019. "On the Euler–Maruyama scheme for spectrally one-sided Lévy driven SDEs with Hölder continuous coefficients," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 15-26.
    14. Pingping Jiang & Bo Li & Yongjin Wang, 2020. "Exit Times, Undershoots and Overshoots for Reflected CIR Process with Two-Sided Jumps," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 693-710, June.
    15. Ying Jiao & Chunhua Ma & Simone Scotti & Chao Zhou, 2021. "The Alpha‐Heston stochastic volatility model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 943-978, July.
    16. M.E. Mancino & S. Scotti & G. Toscano, 2020. "Is the Variance Swap Rate Affine in the Spot Variance? Evidence from S&P500 Data," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 288-316, July.
    17. Alessandro Bondi & Sergio Pulido & Simone Scotti, 2022. "The rough Hawkes Heston stochastic volatility model," Papers 2210.12393, arXiv.org.
    18. Claudio Fontana & Alessandro Gnoatto & Guillaume Szulda, 2022. "CBI-time-changed Lévy processes," Working Papers 05/2022, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    19. Jiao, Ying & Ma, Chunhua & Scotti, Simone & Sgarra, Carlo, 2019. "A branching process approach to power markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 144-156.
    20. Backwell, Alex & Hayes, Joshua, 2022. "Expected and Unexpected Jumps in the Overnight Rate: Consistent Management of the Libor Transition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    21. Ying Jiao & Chunhua Ma & Simone Scotti & Chao Zhou, 2018. "The Alpha-Heston Stochastic Volatility Model," Papers 1812.01914, arXiv.org.
    22. Chen, Li & Ma, Yong & Xiao, Weilin, 2022. "Pricing defaultable bonds under Hawkes jump-diffusion processes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    23. Matyas Barczy & Mohamed Ben Alaya & Ahmed Kebaier & Gyula Pap, 2017. "Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimator for the growth rate of a stable CIR process based on continuous time observations," Papers 1711.02140, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2019.
    24. Micha{l} Barski & Rafa{l} {L}ochowski, 2023. "Classification and calibration of affine models driven by independent L\'evy processes," Papers 2303.08477, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    α $alpha$ -Stable Lévy process; CBI process; Affine term structure model; Low interest rate; Sovereign bond;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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