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Alpha-CIR Model with Branching Processes in Sovereign Interest Rate Modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Ying Jiao

    (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon)

  • Chunhua Ma

    (Nankai University, School of mathematical sciences - NKU - Nankai University)

  • Simone Scotti

    (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We introduce a class of interest rate models, called the α-CIR model, which gives a natural extension of the standard CIR model by adopting the α-stable Lévy process and preserving the branching property. This model allows to describe in a unified and parsimonious way several recent observations on the sovereign bond market such as the persistency of low interest rate together with the presence of large jumps at local extent. We emphasize on a general integral representation of the model by using random fields, with which we establish the link to the CBI processes and the affine models. Finally we analyze the jump behaviors and in particular the large jumps, and we provide numerical illustrations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Jiao & Chunhua Ma & Simone Scotti, 2016. "Alpha-CIR Model with Branching Processes in Sovereign Interest Rate Modelling," Working Papers hal-01275397, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01275397
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01275397v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. D. P. Kennedy, 1994. "The Term Structure Of Interest Rates As A Gaussian Random Field," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 247-258.
    3. Thibault Jaisson & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2013. "Limit theorems for nearly unstable Hawkes processes," Papers 1310.2033, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
    4. Damir Filipovic, 2001. "A general characterization of one factor affine term structure models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 389-412.
    5. Duhalde, Xan & Foucart, Clément & Ma, Chunhua, 2014. "On the hitting times of continuous-state branching processes with immigration," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 124(12), pages 4182-4201.
    6. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015. "Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
    7. Gibbons, Michael R & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1993. "A Test of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model of the Term Structure," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 619-658.
    8. Kallsen, Jan & Muhle-Karbe, Johannes, 2010. "Exponentially affine martingales, affine measure changes and exponential moments of affine processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 163-181, February.
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