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The Usefulness of Climate Modelling for Humanitarian Aid Resource Allocation: An Exploratory Literature Review

Author

Listed:
  • Juha-Pekka Jäpölä

    (University of Antwerp
    European Commission, Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO))

  • Steven Passel

    (University of Antwerp)

Abstract

The threats of climate change have become fundamental for the humanitarian sector. 305 million people—or every 26th person worldwide—will need humanitarian aid in 2025 comprising a funding requirement of USD 47.4 billion. Inserting climate change-related forecast information to compute sound economic decisions is a cutting-edge consideration for global humanitarian financing institutions, such as the United Nations and the European Union, to cope with the era of climate losses and damages. Thus, we asked an interdisciplinary question: How useful is climate change-related modelling for economic decision-making in humanitarian aid resource allocation? We ran an exploratory literature review on this specific question by taking a snapshot of 41 studies on the Web of Science, assessed to which extent the utility of the modelling for economic decision-making was examined, and ranked them based on their usefulness. The review indicates that there should be more efforts to improve the forecasting ability and the transformation of information from climate modelling fluidly to economic decision-making in the humanitarian sector to be actionable for effective resource allocation. We assessed that more than half (23/41) of our dataset had limited discussion on the utility or mostly challenges of further use for utility documented, the two least valuable ranks. By extension, similar allocation issues will exist in development and climate policy, where we adapt and build resilience before assistance is needed. To curb the problem, research on integrating the different communities is proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Juha-Pekka Jäpölä & Steven Passel, 2025. "The Usefulness of Climate Modelling for Humanitarian Aid Resource Allocation: An Exploratory Literature Review," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 189-207, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:9:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s41885-024-00168-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s41885-024-00168-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yuriy Kuleshov & Paul Gregory & Andrew B. Watkins & Robert J. B. Fawcett, 2020. "Tropical cyclone early warnings for the regions of the Southern Hemisphere: strengthening resilience to tropical cyclones in small island developing states and least developed countries," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1295-1313, November.
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    3. Dieter Helm, 2010. "Government failure, rent-seeking, and capture: the design of climate change policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(2), pages 182-196, Summer.
    4. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December.
    5. Maxwell, Daniel & Caldwell, Richard & Langworthy, Mark, 2008. "Measuring food insecurity: Can an indicator based on localized coping behaviors be used to compare across contexts?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 533-540, December.
    6. Kiatkulchai Jitt-Aer & Graham Wall & Dylan Jones & Richard Teeuw, 2022. "Use of GIS and dasymetric mapping for estimating tsunami-affected population to facilitate humanitarian relief logistics: a case study from Phuket, Thailand," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 185-211, August.
    7. Juha-Pekka Jäpölä & Sophie Schoubroeck & Steven Passel, 2024. "Preferences on funding humanitarian aid and disaster management under climatic losses and damages: A multinational Delphi panel," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-21, July.
    8. Mude, Andrew G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & McPeak, John G. & Kaitho, Robert & Kristjanson, Patti, 2009. "Empirical forecasting of slow-onset disasters for improved emergency response: An application to Kenya's arid north," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 329-339, August.
    9. Erin Coughlan de Perez & Maarten van Aalst & Richard Choularton & Bart van den Hurk & Simon Mason & Hannah Nissan & Saroja Schwager, 2019. "From rain to famine: assessing the utility of rainfall observations and seasonal forecasts to anticipate food insecurity in East Africa," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(1), pages 57-68, February.
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