Narrative policy framework to evaluate clean energy certificates in shaping decarbonization strategies: evidence from Mexico’s electricity sector

This article introduces a unique approach to analyzing the performance of tradable green certificates in Mexico using the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) and Capacity Factor (CF). The Clean Energy Certificates (CEC) aim to reduce CO2e emissions within the National Electricity System (NES). The research evaluates the operating conditions of the photovoltaic and wind subsectors from 2019 to 2023 by examining the relationship between the CF, the backup of conventional plants to manage intermittency, and their impact on the CEC. The NPF uses multiple dimensions and levels to assess the policy consistency and decarbonization goals of the NES. Additionally, it compares official CO2 emissions reduction projections with the indirect emissions from backup plants, based on real electricity generation data from both subsectors. The findings reveal the need for fossil fuel-based backup power plants to compensate for the shortfall in CF, which generates indirect emissions. Therefore, the reliance on fossil-based backup plants underscores the necessity for a new and more sustainable method of CEC allocation. This method would be crucial in influencing decarbonization targets, particularly as intermittent generation in the energy matrix continues to rise. In summary, the expected delivery of 198,041 GWh between 2019 and 2023 by the PV and wind subsectors fell short of expectations, with only 159,188 GWh generated and delivered. Furthermore, the metabolic rate for both subsectors stood at 0.8 to 201.3 kgCO2/MWh for PV and 83.7 to 129 kgCO2/MWh for wind, respectively, surpassing the threshold for clean energy between three and four years out of five analyzed.