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Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States

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  • Matthew Reeves
  • Adam Moreno
  • Karen Bagne
  • Steven Running

Abstract

The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO 2 enrichment and nitrogen deposition were evaluated as drivers of NPP. Across all three scenarios, rangeland NPP increased by 0.26 % year −1 (7 kg C ha −1 year −1 ) but increases were not apparent until after 2030 and significant regional variation in NPP was revealed. The Desert Southwest and Southwest assessment regions exhibited declines in NPP of about 7 % by 2100, while the Northern and Southern Great Plains, Interior West and Eastern Prairies all experienced increases over 25 %. Grasslands dominated by warm season (C4 photosynthetic pathway) species showed the greatest response to temperature while cool season (C3 photosynthetic pathway) dominated regions responded most strongly to CO 2 enrichment. Modeled NPP responses compared favorably with experimental results from CO 2 manipulation experiments and to NPP estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Collectively, these results indicate significant and asymmetric changes in NPP for U.S. rangelands may be expected. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Reeves & Adam Moreno & Karen Bagne & Steven Running, 2014. "Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 429-442, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:126:y:2014:i:3:p:429-442
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1235-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hanson, J. D. & Baker, B. B. & Bourdon, R. M., 1993. "Comparison of the effects of different climate change scenarios on rangeland livestock production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 487-502.
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    1. Chunbo Chen & Chi Zhang, 2017. "Projecting the CO 2 and Climatic Change Effects on the Net Primary Productivity of the Urban Ecosystems in Phoenix, AZ in the 21st Century under Multiple RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) Sce," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-20, August.
    2. J. Shannon Neibergs & Tipton D. Hudson & Chad E. Kruger & Kaelin Hamel-Rieken, 2018. "Estimating climate change effects on grazing management and beef cattle production in the Pacific Northwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 5-17, January.
    3. Xiangwei Zhao & Qian Gao & Yaojie Yue & Lian Duan & Shun Pan, 2018. "A System Analysis on Steppe Sustainability and Its Driving Forces—A Case Study in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Jianjian He & Pengyan Zhang & Wenlong Jing & Yuhang Yan, 2018. "Spatial Responses of Net Ecosystem Productivity of the Yellow River Basin under Diurnal Asymmetric Warming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, October.
    5. Chaobin Zhang & Ying Zhang & Jianlong Li, 2019. "Grassland Productivity Response to Climate Change in the Hulunbuir Steppes of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-15, November.
    6. Dennis S. Ojima & Rebecca Aicher & Steven R. Archer & Derek W. Bailey & Susan M. Casby-Horton & Nancy Cavallaro & Julian J. Reyes & John A. Tanaka & Robert A. Washington-Allen, 2020. "A climate change indicator framework for rangelands and pastures of the USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1733-1750, December.
    7. Haiming Yan & Jinyan Zhan & Feng Wu & Huicai Yang, 2016. "Effects of Climate Change and LUCC on Terrestrial Biomass in the Lower Heihe River Basin during 2001–2010," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-18, April.
    8. K. M. Havstad & J. R. Brown & R. Estell & E. Elias & A. Rango & C. Steele, 2018. "Vulnerabilities of Southwestern U.S. Rangeland-based animal agriculture to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 371-386, June.
    9. Matthew O. Jones & Steven W. Running & John S. Kimball & Nathaniel P. Robinson & Brady W. Allred, 2020. "Terrestrial primary productivity indicators for inclusion in the National Climate Indicators System," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1855-1868, December.

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